MLB
1 Pick.
12:05PM EST: Nationals ML +165 (3U).
WSH SP DJ Herz hasn't allowed more than 2ER in 6 straight starts. He has a 2.79 ERA in the Month of August. The Southpaw's most recent road start came @ BAL, one of the best LHP hitting teams in baseball. The Rookie faced ATL in his 2nd career start on June 9th, allowing 2 Runs on 4.1 IP.
ATL SP Reynaldo Lopez came back from a brief IL stint last week. He allowed 1 ER on 5 IP against Philly, striking out 10. Prior to hitting the IL he had been laboring quite a bit, posting a 1.5 WHIP in his final 3 starts. He made 1 rehab start and gave up 3 ER on 6 hits, 1 walk, and 1 HBP across 4 innings. The Phillies didn't lack opportunities against Lopez, going 1 for 5 with RISP, including a bases loaded opportunity. He's on regular rest today, something Atlanta's asked him to do just twice all year. He threw 90 pitches against Philly and taxing ones. The Braves are making a late season push for the division and those are mini playoff games. That IL stint came from a heavy workload. Prior to this year’s 109 IP, he hasn't pitched more than 66 innings in a Major League season since 2019. He likely won't be as sharp today.
Washington's looking to avoid the sweep here. Prior to this Atlanta series they had won 3 of their last 4 games. They're hitting .282 with a .755 OPS over the last week as well. Atlanta's scored more than 3 runs just once over their last 6 games and it was 4.
1:35PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +115 (3U).
AZ SP Merrill Kelly is making his 3rd start since coming off the IL. He allowed 2 Runs on 5 IP in his first start back and 6 Runs on 5 IP in his 2nd. He made 4 starts before hitting the IL earlier this season and had a 2.19 ERA. He had a 3.29 ERA last year and a 3.37 ERA the year before that. Having not pitched since last Sunday, we like him to be his usual self with the extended rest. Boston's offense has scored just 3 runs through the first 2 games of this series.
BOS SP Tanner Houck has gotten results of late, but he's been lucky. In his last 2 starts he's allowed 12 hits, walked 2, and hit 3 batters but has allowed just 4 ER. A runner was thrown out at the plate with less than 2 outs in each of those games. He has a 3.01 ERA on the season but an xERA of 3.97. Altogether he's allowed an opponent BA of .283 with a 1.39 WHIP in 4 August starts. In 6 starts since the All-Star Break he's allowed an opponent BA of .293 with a 1.54 WHIP. A team’s going to cash in on all those baserunners at some point and the hottest offense in baseball is the team to do it.