MLB
5 Picks.
6:45PM EST: COL/WSH Under 8 (3 Units).
COL SP Austin Gomber appears to have returned to pre-injury form this Month. He's allowed 2ER exactly in each of his last 2 road starts. 7 IP at San Diego and 6 IP at Arizona. Those 2-rank 1st and 4th in OPS in the Month of August. WSH has scored just 13 runs over their last 5 games with a .645 OPS over that span. They also rank 26th in OPS vs LHP and they traded away Lane Thomas, who led the team with a .922 OPS vs LHP.
WSH SP DJ Herz has a 3.48 ERA over his last 7 starts and is fresh off a Quality Start @ BAL. Colorado ranks 22nd in OPS vs LHP ad 28th in OPS on the road. The Rockies scored just 3 runs in each of their 2 most recent games, played at Coors Field.
Both bullpens are fresh and rested after a day off yesterday. Only 1 reliever between the 2 teams has thrown more than 22 pitches the last 3 days and it was the Rockies mid-long relief guy.
7:05PM EST: Guardians ML +130 (5 Units)
CLE SP Matthew Boyd debuted for Cleveland 7 days ago and looked very sharp. He allowed 1 run on just 3 hits across 5.1 IP. He didn't walk a single batter and recorded 6 K's on 80 pitches. He made 5 minor league starts before being called up and threw 60+ in 3 of them. On extra rest we trust that his arm’s feeling good. He's dealt with injuries for the last 5 years and as such hasn't faced NY since 2019. Last time he did he went into Yankees stadium and tossed 6.1 innings of 1 run ball, striking out 13. He'll have the added unfamiliarity on his side the first time through the order. The Yankees lead the league in OPS, but they fall to 17th vs LHP. New York's scored 3 runs or less in 4 of their last 6 games and more than 4 runs just once during that span. That's despite playing 3 games against the White Sox.
NYY SP Luis Gil has struggled of late. The career high in innings pitched and workload has started catching up to the Rookie. He's made 2 starts in August against the Angels and White Sox. He went 5 scoreless against LAA allowing just 2 hits but walked 5. He gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks against the White Sox on 4 IP. He's failed to pitch 6 innings in 4 straight and 9 of his last 11 starts. The Yankees bullpen has been less than reliable for the past Month and a half, and their Closer Clay Holmes leads the league in Blown Saves.
Behind Boyd is a Cleveland bullpen that's been lights out. They struggled for a bit about a Month ago, but they lead the league in bullpen ERA for a reason. Nobody has pitched more than once for Cleveland in the last 5 days either. These are playoff games with Home Field advantage very much on the line. CLE trails NY and BAL by a half game for best record in baseball. We expect Boyd to go through this lineup twice before they pass it off to the pen. 7:45PM EST: Brewers ML +105 (3 Units).
MIL SP Frankie Montas has a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts for Milwaukee after being acquired at the deadline. They're 3-0 in those 3 starts. When healthy and at the top of his game he's a low 3's ERA type of pitcher. He's someone we thought would really benefit from the change of scenery and he's been good. He's faced STL twice this season, recording a quality start both times. His most recent came @ STL on June 28th, he allowed 1 ER on just 2 hits across on 6 IP. Behind Montas is a Brewers bullpen that's been among the best in baseball the last Month +. Half their bullpen has a sub 2.0 ERA and only 2 of them have an ERA above 3 the last 30 days. It's fresh from a night off yesterday. Big reason they've won 5 straight games, against the Dodgers and Guardians no less.
STL SP Erick Fedde has a 5.63 ERA in 3 starts for the Cardinals after being acquired at the deadline. They're 1-2 in those 3 starts. His only decent start came against the Tampa Bay Rays, who rank last in OPS this Month. He's faced Milwaukee once this year, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks across 5 IP. The current Brewers roster has a .340 BA and .567 xSLG in 67 career plate appearances against Fedde.8:10PM EST:
LAA/KC First 5 innings Under 4.5 (3 Units)
.LAA SP Tyler Anderson has a 1.81 ERA in 10 road starts this season. He's allowed 1ER or less in 6 straight road starts and 8 total. The Angels are actually 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. He's faced KC once this year, recording a quality start, allowing 3ER on 6.2 IP at Home. 2 of the 3 runs came after the 5th inning. He allowed 2 ER on 5 IP in his most recent road trip to KC last season. KC also ranks just 18th in OPS vs LHP this year.
KC SP Cole Ragans has a 1.89 ERA in 3 August Starts. He's allowed 3ER or less in 21 of his 25 starts. He's also allowed more than 2 runs in the first 5 innings just once over his last 7 starts. It was 3 runs against a red-hot Diamondbacks offense. The Angels rank 27th in OPS over the last 7 days and are also 27th in the entire month of August.
9:40PM EST: MIN/SD Under 8 (3 Units).
MIN SP Bailey Ober has recorded 10 straight quality starts, allowing 2 runs or less in 9 of them. He has a 1.96 ERA over his last 7 starts. The Padres offense has scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 7 games, including 2 games at Coors Field. They scored 5 runs on 4 hits against Rookie Zebby Matthews in his 2nd career start last night but didn't record another hit or walk against 2 of the Twins worst relievers the following 3 half innings.
SD SP Martin Perez has a 1.96 ERA in 3 starts for the Padres, allowing no more than 2 Runs in any start. He also fired 6 shutout innings in his final start for the Pirates before being traded. Minnesota's scored 21 runs combined in their last 6 games. They were good against LHP for much of this season, but they've fallen quite quickly after losing Carlos Correa (.965 OPS) to the IL and just recently Byron Buxton (.836).
None of Minnesota's high leverage arms have thrown more than 9 pitches in the last 3 days. The Padres bullpen is just stacked top to bottom and no reliever has thrown more than once the last 3 days. These two combined for just 9 hits and 6 walks in the first game of this 3-game set last night.