MLB
5 Picks
6:40PM EST: Royals ML +100 (3 Units).
Won't make a ton of money betting against Tarik Skubal but you've got to score runs to win games and Detroit's managed just 5 runs over their last 4 contests. 4 of those 5 runs game in 1 game and during a blowout loss. KC SP Cole Ragans is as good as any when he's on and he's got a 2.83 ERA in 9 road starts. He's allowed 18 Earned Runs on the road this season and 7 of those came in 1 rough outing. Everyone has their bad days. He recorded a season high 12 strikeouts over a 1 hit 6 shutout inning performance in his only start against Detroit this year.
Skubal's the Cy Young favorite right now but the Royals offense has been hot for some time. They’re in the top 5 in OPS in just about any time frame over the last 30 days and have scored 77 runs in 13 games since the All-Star Break. Skubal also has a career 4.85 ERA against KC, allowing 4 runs over 5IP in his most recent start against them this year.
6:45PM EST: Brewers ML -115 (2 Units).
The newly acquired Frankie Montas will start for Milwaukee. He's someone that should benefit from the change of scenery. He'll most certainly benefit from one of the best pitching staffs in the league. He's labored a bit in his 2 most recent starts, but he hasn't pitched since the 24th. Extended break along with some time to work in with Milwaukee should do him some good. Regardless he won't need to pitch deeply. Milwaukee has the 3rd best bullpen ERA in baseball and they added a reliever before the deadline. With yesterday off and nobody throwing more than twice in the last 5 days, they're ready to unload.
WSH SP Jake Irvin is having a great year, but he's struggled against Milwaukee in his short 2-year career. He allowed 7 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks against them on his only start against them this season on July 14th. In 2 combined starts against them last season he allowed 6 runs over 10 IP on 9 hits and 7 walks. in 47 career PA the Brewers roster has a .317 BA against Irvin and a .435 xwOBA. The Nats bullpen's 24th in ERA and their closer Kyle Finnegan has given up 5 and 2 runs in this last 2 appearances.
7:05PM EST: Blue Jays ML +140 (3 Units).
TOR SP Kevin Gausman threw a complete game on 118 pitches his last time out. He threw 115 pitches on 2 separate occasions last year and allowed 1ER in each of the starts following. He's on an extra days rest and the All-Star break just passed. His arm should be just fine. He's battled consistency issues this season, but he has a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts on the road this year. When he was struggling, he went into NY and got blasted for 5 runs over 1.1 IP. However, he's been dominant in the Bronx since joining Toronto in 2022. Excluding his start in NY this year he's made 4 others, allowing just 2 earned runs combined over 25.2 IP. 3 of the last 4 scoreless outings. The Yanks offense has been hot but good pitching will always beat good hitting and he's been sharp on the road in every start but 1.
Toronto's bullpen is the tale of 2 halves at the moment. They've sold some good relievers, but they still have a few very good options and they're all fresh from a day off yesterday. Some didn't see any work in the Baltimore series as Toronto’s starters got hammered.
NYY SP Marcus Stroman just isn't great. He has a 5.56 ERA over his last 7, a 4.47 ERA at Home, and a 5.19 ERA in 2 starts since the Break. Last season for Chicago he posted an 8.63 ERA after the All-Star break after a 2.96 ERA before it. He lasted just 4.1 innings allowing 3 runs on 88 pitches when he last saw Toronto on June 28th.
7:10PM EST: BAL/CLE Under 9 (3 Units)
Liked this yesterday and do again today. Manager Brandon Hyde punted yesterday's game after Trevor Rogers gave up a few too many runs against a team with the best bullpen in baseball. He tried to squeeze as many outs out of Albert Suarez as he could despite him throwing 80+ pitches 4 days prior. The decision has his best bullpen arms fresh, and it was the wise move. Cleveland sent out 3 relievers for 3 innings of work and they allowed 1 hit while recording 5 strikeouts. They weren’t Cleveland’s top arms either.
BAL SP Dean Kremer has a 3.05 ERA on the road this year. CLE wasn't swinging it great going into yesterday's game and they managed 10 runs on 11 hits. Some big swings and they benefited from some very weak pitching. Baltimore will get a better start from Kremer, and they have no choice but to use better relivers tonight even if he struggles.
Baltimore’s offense struggled just as we expected against one of the best pitching teams in baseball. If they're to do damage it will need to be done early. Carlos Carrasco is coming off a couple of tough outings since the Break. He had allowed 3ER or less in 5 straight and 6 of his last 7 leading up to the break, including 5 innings of 2 run ball in Baltimore. Just a matter of time before he locks back in. He only needs to navigate the lineup twice before the best bullpen in baseball is unloaded.
9:40PM EST: A's ML +130 (4 Units).
LAD SP Gavin Stone has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 road starts. He's surrendered 5 homeruns across 4 July Starts. Oakland ranks 4th in total homeruns this season and led the league with 45 Homeruns in 24 July Games. Since the All-Star break they're 5th in OPS scoring 5 or more runs in 8 of their 12 games. OAK SP Joey Estes has a 2.12 ERA at Home. This Dodgers offense is a shell of what it's supposed to be. They're missing key pieces up and down the lineup and rank 29th in BA and 24th in OPS over the last week. Big reason they're just 2-5 over their last 7 games. Oakland also has the better bullpen and while LA’s is good, it’s struggled of late.
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