MLB
3 Picks.
7:07PM EST: Reds Team Total Under 3.5 (3 Units).
The Blue Jays have held opponents below this total in 5 of their last 6, and 7 of their last 9 games. Their bullpens throwing well and Ryan Yarbrough and Tommy Nance are the only 2 relievers that have thrown more than 21 pitches in the last 5 days and they're at 30 and 34. TOR SP Kevin Gausman had a rocky start to the season but he has a 3.17 ERA over his last 7 starts. He's fresh off a 7-inning shutout against the Angels in LA. In his last 2 Home starts, 8 IP, 3 Hits, 2 ER, and 9 IP, 4 Hits, 3 ER. The Reds rank 19th in OPS on the road and have scored just 1 run exactly in each of their last 3 games. Excluding their trip to Miami against a terrible Marlins pitching staff, the Reds have gone under this in 5 of their last 6 road games.
8:10PM EST: Red Sox ML +125 (4 Units).
BOS SP Tanner Houck struggled coming out of the All-Star Break, but he's thrown back-to-back quality starts, allowing just 3 combined runs across 12.2 IP. He also held Houston to 1 run on 6 IP at Home 2 weeks ago. He has a career ERA of 3.18 on the Road and a 2.63 ERA vs Houston. The current Astros roster has a .205 BA vs Houck in 50 plate appearances.
Yusei Kikuchi has pitched well in his 3 starts for HOU since being acquired by Toronto at the deadline. 2 of those 3 starts did come against the Rays, who rank dead last in OPS this Month. Kikuchi's seen Boston a lot as a Member of the Blue Jays the last few years and he has a 6.75 ERA in 8 career games against them. He's allowed 5 ER exactly in each of his last 3 starts vs BOS and couldn't finish the 5th in any of them. 2 of those starts came in 2023 and 1 earlier this year. The current Red Sox roster has a .327 BA and a .751 xSLG vs Kikuchi in 52 plate appearances. Boston's offense ranks 4th in OPS and has scored 4 or more runs in 13 of their 16 games this Month.
9:40PM EST: A's ML +110 (2 Units).
Going back TB SP Taj Bradley last 3 starts he's allowed 6 ER on 4.1 IP, 5 ER on 4.2 IP, and 4 ER on 5 IP. He has a 4.5 ERA on the road this year and gave up 3 runs on 4.1 IP in his lone career start vs the A's @ OAK last season. The A's offense is feast or famine with their aggressive approach and they've scored just 2 runs in each of their last 2 games. They had scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 leading up to that. They went 2 for 9 with RISP yesterday and left 10 on base. They also went 0-5 with the bases loaded without scoring a single run so the chances were there.
OAK SP Joe Boyle has made 11 career big league starts, 3 last year and 8 this year. He was derailed by a back injury this season and just returned to the Bigs last week. He struggled in New York against a hot Mets offense. Consistency has been an issue for him, but he's allowed 2 ER or less in 6 of his 11 MLB starts and 3ER in another. He was pitching well at AAA before being called back up, posting a 2.36 ERA in his last 6 starts down there. Like him to rebound at Home where he's comfortable against a Rays offense that's dead last in OPS this Month. Oakland has a good bullpen, and it's fully loaded.
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