MLB
4 Picks.
1:40PM EST: KC/CIN Over 9 (3 Units).
KC SP Brady Singer has an 8.44 ERA in 2 August Starts on a .367 opponent BA and 1.97 WHIP. He has a 2.5 Home ERA but a 4.47 Road ERA. The HR Ball has a lot to do with it. Kansas City’s stadium is ranked 24th in HR factor, 14 points below average, and as such he's allowed just 4 Homeruns in 13 Home starts this season. However, on the road he's allowed 11 Home Runs in 11 starts. The Reds ballpark ranks 3rd in HR factor, 18 points above average. He's struggling and this is a tough venue for him to turn it around.
CIN SP Andrew Abbot is coming off a good start against the Cardinals, but they rank 26th in OPS vs LHP. He really hasn't been great over his last 6 starts. He's allowed 39 hits, 13 Walks, and 18 runs across 30 IP (5.4 ERA). The Royals offense is 2nd in OPS over the last week and 3rd in OPS over the last 15 days. They scored 13 runs yesterday and 7 the day before at this ballpark.
It's Hot with over 70% Humidity and light winds blowing out. Outside of the top half of the Reds, neither bullpen is very good either.
2:10PM EST: CLE/MIL F5 Over 4.5 (2 Units).
CLE SP Ben Lively allowed 3 runs across 3.2 IP his last time out and 4 runs on 5 IP the start before that. He's also surrendered 2 Homeruns in each of his last 2 starts and Milwaukee's ballpark is 6th in HR factor, 13 points above average. MIL SP Colin Rea has a 4.26 ERA at Home and just got hammered for 7 runs in his most recent start against the Dodgers. He's now allowed 6 Homeruns and 9 runs in his last 2 Home starts combined. On the season he's allowed 15 Homeruns at Home compared to just 5 on the road.
It's also Hot with over 70% Humidity and 15+ MPH winds blowing out to right field. The Ball will carry well today. With 2 exceptional bullpens the scoring could very well stop as soon as the starters come out. The bullpens have allowed a combined 3 runs on 13 IP through the first 2 games of this series and all 3 runs came off one of Milwaukee's worst relievers as they led 5-0 at the time. 2:35PM EST: MIN/TEX Under 8 (3 Units). MIN SP Pablo Lopez has a 3.19 ERA in 5 starts since the All-Star Break. MIN SP Tyler Mahle has a 2.79 ERA in 2 starts since coming off the IL. He gave up 2 runs over 4.2 IP at Boston his last time out but the bullpen let his 2nd run in. He exited with a man on 1st and 2 outs. That was a Red-Hot Boston offense in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. This is the 4th and final game of this series and each of them have gone under this total. Both bullpens can call on whoever they need today. 4:07PM EST: A's ML +140 (3 Units).
SF SP Blake Snell is as dominant as any, but this Giants offense has been putrid, scoring 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. They've scored 21 runs combined in those 8 games. Snell threw a gem his last time out, but he did throw 114 pitches. He also threw 114 pitches in a complete game on August 2nd and followed that up allowing 3 earned runs in his next start. As pointed out yesterday the A's offense is much more productive at Home compared to on the road but also against LHP. They're 10th with a .748 OPS vs LHP compared to 20th with a .688 OPS vs RHP.
OAK SP has been dominant, going 7 innings in each of his last 3 starts and allowing just 4 combined runs. He's allowed just 3 hits exactly in each of those 3 starts. He's allowed 3 ER or less in 7 of his last 8 starts and 2ER or less in 5 of his last 7. He also went into SF 3 starts back and tossed 7 shutout innings. Oakland's bullpen is still in great shape, and they didn't even use stud closer Mason Miller in last night's 2-0 win.
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