Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (8/12/24)

MLB

4 Picks.

6:40PM EST: Guardians ML +105 (2 Units)

CHC SP Shota Imanaga is as good as they come when he's on but he's a fly ball pitcher that gets hurt by the long ball. Cleveland's stadium ranks 8th in MLB with a 113 HR Park Factor (100 average). The Guardians hit Lefties well and are tied with the 3rd most HR's vs LHP. The Chicago bullpen isn't great, and it nearly blew a 7-run lead against the White Sox of all teams just the other day.

CLE SP Ben Lively has allowed 2ER or less in 14 of his 20 starts and 3ER or less in 17. He just allowed more than 3ER for the first time at Home against a hot Arizona lineup. He's allowed 2ER or less in 7 of his 9 Home Starts and has a 3.14 ERA at Progressive Field. Cleveland's #1 bullpen struggled a bit to start August, but they've been lights out over their last 5 games. Their Closer Emmanuel Clase has pitched back-to-back days, but he had 4 days off before it and has pitched 3 straight days before. At this point in the season, we trust he's available for tonight.

7:10PM EST: Rangers ML +110 (3 Units).

TEX SP Tyler Mahle pitched well in his 2024 debut, allowing 1 ER over 5IP on 76 pitches. He worked up to 74 pitches in 6 rehab starts and is working on an extra days rest so he should be feeling even better tonight. Jose Leclerc is the only Rangers reliever to throw more than once the last 4 days and their closer Kirby Yates hasn't thrown in a week. He's a perfect 20/20 on save opportunities this year and capable of multi-inning saves. If a wins within reach don't be surprised if he's out in the 8th inning. Boston's offense appears to have finally cooled off, scoring just 14 runs over their last 4 games despite some blowout losses against weaker pitching.

BOS SP Brayan Bello has a 5.71 ERA at Home this season. He's allowed at least 3 runs in 5 of his last 6 starts with the lone exception coming against an ice-cold Mariners offense. He's a younger pitcher and the innings may be catching up to him. He pitched 157 innings last year but after posting a 3.04 ERA before the break, he finished the 2nd half of 2023 with a 5.49. Boston's bullpen's also in rough shape after James Paxton left yesterday's start after throwing just 5 pitches. The Red Sox also had a bullpen today on Saturday so there aren't many great options available. Bello's going to be left out there longer than normal even if he struggles.

9:40PM EST: DBacks Runline -1.5 -135 (3 Units)

Won't play odds like this too often but Colorado's pitching staff is in rough shape and Arizona's got the hottest offense in baseball that just scored 11 and 12 runs in their last 2 games. COL SP Cal Quantrill has a 5.1 ERA on the road this season, a 7.52 ERA over his last 7 starts, and gave up 5 runs in Arizona when he was pitching better earlier this year. Cal's last 4 road starts have come against SD, LAA, CIN, and CWS. His best start came against SD (4.1 IP 3ER) but in those 4 starts he's allowed a combined 20 earned runs over just 15.IP. The Colorado bullpen is in rough shape and has been used and abused over the last 5 days. Going back their starting pitchers have gone 3.2 IP, 2.2 IP, 5 IP, 3 IP, and 1 IP. That's 5 straight without a single day off going into today. There are 3 Rockies relievers that have thrown less than 52 pitches over the last 5 days and only 1 of them is any good.

ARI SP Brandon Pfaadt has a 2.66 ERA over his last 7 starts. He had 1 bad start giving up 5ER over 6IP to PIT but didn't allow a run in 2 of those 7 starts and allowed just 1 run in 2 others. He's pitching very well, and the Rockies offense ranks 28th in OPS on the road. This is their first road game following a Home Stand and that’s a spot Rockies’s offenses have struggled in since the inception of Coors Field. Pfaadt allowed 1ER over 5IP against Colorado at Home earlier this season. Arizona's last 2 blowout wins has also left their bullpen in great shape.

9:45PM EST: Giants ML -110 (2Units).

ATL SP Chris Sale hasn't been as sharp in his last 2 starts. He's only allowed 5 runs (4 earned) across 10.1 IP, but he's given up 15 hits and 5 walks. He's up to 127.2 IP on the season and you've got to go back to 2019 for the last time he's thrown more than that. He's been injured quite a bit but 2019 was the last time he pitched the majority of the season, and he finished with 147.1 IP. He hasn't pitched enough innings to be qualified since 2017. In 2019 his ERA was 1.32 points higher after the All-Star break compared to before. Have to wonder just how much juice is left in Chris Sale's arm right now. The SF Giants are also considerably stronger vs LHP, ranking 6th in OPS. Atlanta's bullpen has really struggled, and they just blew a 6-run lead in the 8th inning yesterday.

SF SP Blake Snell has a 1.67 ERA in 4 starts since the break. Post All-Star Break Snell is a thing. In his career he has a 3.98 ERA (106 Starts) before the break and a 2.41 after (86 Starts). Truly one of the wildest career splits in baseball. The Braves offense is also facing the post Coors Field effect. The Altitude takes a toll on the unconditioned body, but it changes how the pitches come in. Tends to take time to readjust and it's the reason Colorado's offense is always so putrid on the road. The Mets offense was playing well going into Coors and scored 9 runs in their final game there. They scored just 1 run in their following 3 game set vs Seattle. SF also has the 6th most pitcher friendly park in baseball.