Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (8/10/24)

MLB

2 Picks.

4:10PM: HOU/BOS Over 10.5 (2 Units).

High total but for starters it'll be 85° +, over 50% Humidity, with 10MPH Wind Gusts blowing out to right field so the Ball will carry today. HOU SP Spencer Arrighetti has a 6.61 ERA through 10 road starts this season and a 6.98 ERA over his last 4. Boston's going with a bullpen day and it's up there for worst pen in bases over the last Month +. Zach Kelly (4.22 ERA) and Starter Wincowski (4.32 ERA) are the only Boston relievers with an ERA below 6.48 over the last 30 days. Wincowski just threw 37 pitches on Wednesday so he won't be able to provide much length despite making spot starts before.

Offensively Houston had been absolutely terrible from July up until 3 games ago. They're still 11th in OPS on the season despite the Month+ of struggles which is why we're buying the breakout. It's a talented lineup and going back they've scored 8, 6, and 4 runs on16, 13, and 11 hits. They'll face struggling pitchers in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks. Boston ranks 1st in OPS this season and are red hot. They had an .839 OPS in July, have an .882 OPS since the All-Star Break, and an .880 OPS in August. Houston also sent out 6 of their 8 relievers yesterday so Boston got a look at them when Arrighetti's pulled.

8:10PM EST: ATL/COL Over 10.5 (3 Units).

ATL SP Max Fried is one of the game's best when he's on, but he just came off the IL 6 days ago. In his first start back he gave up 5 runs to the Marlins on 4 hits and 5 walks over just 3.1 IP. With him not 100% we like him to labor a bit at the hitter friendly Coors Field. The Braves bullpen struggles are well documented of late, and they lost yesterday despite rolling out their best relievers. COL SP Dakota Hudson has an 8.26 ERA at Coors Field this season. He was optioned to AAA after 1 July start, and he has a 9.53 ERA in 3 starts down there. He's averaged 5 innings pitched per start and is being called back up because of injuries. The Rockies bullpen has 2 reliable relievers in Tyler Kinley and Closer Victor Vodnik. They both threw in yesterday’s win and in 3 of the last 4 days. They're likely unavailable today which leaves a lot of bad arms behind Hudson.