MLB
3 Picks.
6:40PM EST: Yankees ML +100 VOID (SP Gerrit Cole scratched)
NYY SP Gerrit Cole is coming off a rough performance, allowing 6ER to the Mets last Wednesday. The 2023 CY Young Winner has been inconsistent in his 7 starts since returning from the IL. Going back, he's allowed 6ER, 1, 1, 4, 1, 6, 2. He was trending up tossing back-to-back quality starts before the Mets implosion. A Pitcher like Cole rarely struggles in back-to-back starts. In fact, since 2018 (when he joined HOU) he's allowed 6ER or more 8 times. In the 8 starts following he's never allowed more than 3 runs and has a 1.79 over 50.1 IP. Since the All-Star Break the Phillies rank 24th in OPS and are averaging less than 4 runs per game. The offensive woes are a big reason they're just 3-7 during that span.
Aaron Nola starts for Philly, and he's allowed 3 Runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. He hasn't allowed less than 3 runs in back-to-back starts since the end of May and beginning of June. He tossed 6 innings of 1 run ball at Minnesota his last time out. New York's offense has just caught fire, scoring 7 or more and 40 total over their last 4. Couple of NY's sluggers have great career numbers against Nola as well. Soto has a 1.095 OPS in 33 at bats and Stanton has a 1.103 OPS in 16. 7:10PM EST: SEA/BOS Over 10.5 (2 Units). High total but two of the hottest offenses in baseball. SEA SP Luis Castillo has a 4.11 ERA on the road. He was sharp in his most recent road start against a terrible Angels lineup but he surrendered 4+ in each of his 3 road starts prior. His most recent trip to Boston came in 2023 and he gave up 7 runs. BOS SP James Paxton makes his first start for BOS after being acquired via trade from LAD. He has a 5.27 ERA in 3 July starts and gave up 9 runs in his final June start. Boston's a tough venue for LHP with the Green Monster to help out right handed hitters. SEA's scored 6 or more in 4 straight and BOS's scored 6 or more in 8 of their last 9. It's Hot and Humid with 15+ MPH winds blowing out towards the Monster. 7:45PM EST: STL/TEX Under 8.5 (3 Units). TEX SP Max Scherzer has allowed 3ER or less in all but 1 start. It came in his 2nd start within a Month against the Orioles, the best offense in baseball at the time. He hasn't faced STL since he did twice in 2022 but went 7 innings in both allowing just 1 combined earned run. STL has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 7, 4 in another, and 21 combined during that span. They have a sub .700 OPS over the last week. Cardinals batters have a combined .213 BA and .233 xwOBA in 160 career plate appearances against Scherzer.
STL SP Lance Lynn has a 3.59 ERA in 10 starts at Home this season. He's recorded 3 straight quality starts at Home, allowing just 3 combined runs. TEX has scored 3 or less in 5 of their last 9 and 4 in another. They're 21st in with a sub .700 OPS since the break. Rangers batters have a .225 BA and .277 xwOBA in 86 career plate appearances against Lynn. Each team's high leverage relievers are fresh and rested. 9:40PM EST: Padres ML +115 (3 Units). LAD SP Tyler Glasnow has allowed 5 Earned Runs in 3 of his last 6 starts. He allowed 2 ER over 5 IP on 4 hits and 4 walks in his most recent start at Home against SF. This will be his 3rd time facing San Diego this season and it's a Padres offense that's scored 6 or more in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. SD sends out Knuckleballer Matt Waldron. It will also be his third time facing LA, but a Knuckleball isn't something you get familiar with. Nobody knows exactly where the pitch is going. It's a good night for it with surprising sub 70° weather throughout this game. In his 2 starts vs LA he allowed 1ER over 5.1 IP @ LAD and then 2ER over 5.2 IP at Home. He's backed by arguably the best bullpen in baseball and it's fresh from a day off yesterday.
They acquired RP Jason Adam from TB a couple days ago who will be available. They also traded for relievers Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing right before the deadline. They could get there and find themselves available at the end of this game, but they'll be here tomorrow. With another day off scheduled for Thursday San Diego will unload their stacked bullpen nice and early. They just went all in on the Deadline and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. They nearly came back from a 6-0 hole on Sunday.
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