MLB
7 Picks.
6:40PM EST: Twins -1.5 -105 (2 Units).
We backed MIN SP Pablo Lopez his last time out and we like him to have a strong 2nd half because he has the 2nd highest differential between xERA and ERA among qualified starting pitchers. He started his 2nd half with 7 innings of 1 run ball against Milwaukee at Home. He's been better on the road since joining Minnesota, posting a 3.10 ERA in 16 road starts last year and a 4.58 in 10 starts this year. He's allowed just 3ER across 19IP in his last 3 road starts combined. Twins had the day off yesterday and their bullpens in great shape because of it. DET SP Keider Montero is a Rookie who's allowed 5ER in back-to-back starts, 4 or more in 4 of his 6 games this season, and 4 or more in 3 of his 4 Home appearances. This is also his first time facing an MLB team for the 2nd time after pitching against Minnesota on July 3rd.
6:40PM EST: Guardians ML +150 (3 Units).
CLE SP Ben Lively has allowed 3ER or less in 15 of 17 games and 2ER or less in 12 of them. As long as he keeps the lid on before passing it off to the best bullpen in baseball, Cleveland has a chance. The Guardians had the day off yesterday and it reset their bullpen. Only one of their high leverage relievers has thrown more than 26 pitches in the last 3 days and it was Scott Barlow. He's thrown 36 but has had 3 of the last 5 days off. Every Cleveland reliever has had at least 2 days off over their last 5.
PHI SP Christopher Sanchez has labored in July, posting a 6.32 ERA over 3 starts. He has a .308 opponent BA and 1.53 WHIP. He allowed 2 ER over 5.2 IP against PIT his last time out but allowed 8 hits and recorded just 2 strikeouts. He hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was earlier this season, and the Guardians rank 7th in OPS vs LHP this season. On top of that Philly just isn't playing great, they're 3-6 their last 9, losing each of their last 3 series. Their bullpen hasn't been stellar and just blew a 3 run lead their last time out.
7:05PM EST: Orioles First 5 Runline -.5 -135 (2 Units).
Rookie SD SP Adam Mazur has a 7.84 ERA through 7 starts. He's allowed 4 or more in 3 straight and 4 of 7 starts. He's completed 5 innings just twice, his MLB debut (6.1IP) and against Washington when he allowed 4 runs in 5 innings exactly. Baltimore's offense hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders lately, but they've scored 6 through 9 innings yesterday, and 9 and 8 runs in the first 2 games out of the break. They'll hit bad pitching fine and this is their first Home game since the All-Star Break.
BAL SP Grayson Rodriguez has a 3.14 ERA in 8 Home Starts, allowing 2ER or less in 6 of them. He was sharp out of the break, allowing 2ER over 6IP on just 3 hits and 2 walks @ Texas. The Padres offense has scored 4 or less in 10 of their last 12 games as well. Baltimore's bullpen has been shaky while San Diego's has been lights out. Don't trust the full game run line but willing to pay the price for the first 5. Smaller 2 Unit Play.
7:10PM EST: Red Sox ML +100 (4 Units).
NYY SP Nestor Cortes has a 6.04 ERA through 10 road starts this season, recording just 1 quality start. He's allowed 6 and 5 runs in his 2 most recent starts and has a career 6.19 ERA at Fenway Park. Boston's also scored 6 or more in 5 straight games. Boston ranks 2nd in OPS in the Month of July. BOS SP Brayan Bello went through a bit of a rough patch in July, but he's honed it back it, recording a quality start in 3 of his last 4. He recorded 11 K's over 5.1IP in the one outlier. The Yankees offensive struggles are well documented since the loss of Giancarlo Stanton. They had a couple good days against Tampa but have scored just 10 runs combined in their 4 other games since the break. They combined for just 5 in their most recent 2 game series vs the Mets.
Boston's got some extra life of late as well. Manager Alex Cora got a 3-Year extension and they just acquired LHP James Paxton from the Dodgers. Paxton found himself the odd man out in a talented LAD pitching room. He has a 4.43 ERA this year and posted a 4.5 ERA with Boston a season ago.
8:10PM EST: CHC/KC Under 9 (2 Units).
CHC SP Kyle Hendricks is the tale of two halves. He got roughed up to start the year and was demoted to the bullpen because of it. He returned to his starter role on June 19th and has allowed 3ER or less in 5 of 6 starts and 2ER or less in 4 of them. He has a 3.23 ERA in July and surrendered 3ER over 5IP at Home against Arizona his last time out. He was burned by a couple long balls and that's generally how he struggles. He was at Wrigley with the wind blowing out his last time but he's in a great park to help neutralize his struggles tonight. The Royals ballpark ranks hitter friendly due to its size but Kaufmann Stadium's tied 24th with a HR Rating of 85 (100 average). He's combined to pitch 19.2 innings allowing just 5ER in his last 3 full starts without allowing a HR.
KC SP Brady Singer has a 2.43 ERA at Home and a 2.48 ERA over his last 7 starts. He fired 7 scoreless in his first start out of the break and allowed 1ER exactly in 4 of his last 5 starts leading up to it. It's been a career year for Singer thus far and with this being an interleague game the Cubs have very few prior at bats against him. Both teams had the night off yesterday, allowing their bullpens to reset.
9:38PM EST: OAK/LAA Over 9.5 (3 Units).
OAK SP Paul Blackburn makes his return from the IL tonight. He made 3 rehab starts, one at Single A and 2 at AAA. He gave up 3ER over .2IP in his first rehab start at Single A, recorded 2 outs in his 2nd at AAA, and then have up 7 runs over 3.1 IP on 9 hits and 3 walks in his final. To make matters worse he's coming back against a division rival that's plenty familiar with him. LA's offense has put up 5 or more in 3 of their last 5 games
LAA sends out Carson Fulmer and his 3.66 ERA. He's made 103 career appearances and just 18 of them were starts. He's a career reliever and this is just his 3rd start of the year. He's making a 2nd consecutive start against Oakland after letting up 3 runs over 4.2 IP to them on Monday. The biggest reason relievers fail as starters is their inability to get outs a 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup. Oakland scored all 3 runs against him on Sunday the 2nd and 3rd time through. A's will be plenty familiar with him tonight and this is the #1 offense in baseball in the Month of July with an .871 OPS.
10:15PM EST: COL/SF Under 8 (4 Units). COL SP Kyle Freeland has a 1.89 ERA in 5 starts since returning from the IL. All of them have been quality and he hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in any. 3 of those 5 starts also came at Coors Field, the most hitter friendly park in baseball. He held SF to 2ER over 6IP at Home his last time out, has a 3.89 career ERA against SF in 23 starts (15 at Home), and a 2.54 ERA at Oracle Park. SF has scored 3 or less in 7 of their last 9 and 4 or less in 8. SF SP Kyle Harrison has a 3.8 ERA at Home and has allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts combined. He's allowed just 3ER combined on 10 hits across 17 innings and 3 starts against Colorado this season. 2 of those 3 starts came at Coors Field as well. The Rockies offense ranks 26th on the road. Colorado teams really struggle in the immediate following long Home Stands and they haven't played on the road since July 14th.
Colorado had off yesterday but SF played. Their top relievers got rest as they trailed for all but a half inning once Logan Webb was pulled. Oracle Park is the 29th most hitter friendly park in baseball over the last few seasons. It's also shockingly cold for July with sub 60° temperatures that'll deaden the baseball a bit.
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