MLB
3 Picks
1:05PM EST: MIL/MIN Under 7.5 (3 Units). Brutal Beat on this under last night. Tied 1-1 going into extra innings and it busted in the 12th inning. Taxing game for the players and nearly every bullpen arm threw for each team, but these teams were off Friday, so every reliever is available. This has forced both teams to start backup catchers. Their starters are 4th and 6th in OPS at the catcher position.
MIL SP Aaron Civale was traded to MIL for July. He's made 2 starts, allowing 4ER over 5IP in LA against the Dodgers, then tossing 6.1 innings of 1 run ball vs the Pirates. He's a veteran pitcher that should perform better on a more competitive team. The Twins offense has been struggling, scoring 11 combined runs over their last 5 games going into yesterday and scoring just 4 last night despite 12 innings of baseball. MIN SP Joe Ryan has a 3.53 ERA in 19 starts this year and surrendered 5 runs on 6 hits in his final start before the break. He's allowed more than 3ER in back-to-back starts just once over his 80 career starts. He also averages 6+ innings of work and the Twins top reliever trio is as good as any. They shut out Milwaukee allowing just 1 hit in their 3 innings of work yesterday.
1:35PM: PHI/PIT Over 9 (2 Units).
PHI SP Tyler Phillips has pitched well in his first couple big league appearances. He allowed 4ER over 6IP to OAK his last time out and 1 run over 4IP to ATL in relief in his debut. He has a career 5.19 ERA in 28 AAA appearances and a 4.89 ERA down there this year. He had a 4.06 ERA in June before getting called up in July. He's not an elite pitcher and he's making his 2nd big league start. The Pirates will be able to prepare now that he's got some big-league tape. Pittsburgh's also scored 4 or more in 10 of their 15 July Games and are averaging 5.4 runs per game over that span. They've scored 7 and 4 runs in the first 2 games of this series.
PIT SP Marco Gonzales makes his 2nd start after a long IL trip that started April 15th. Philly was the last team he faced before going on the IL and 8 of the 9 Philly batters in the lineup that day are in today's and most of them have very strong numbers against him and LHP. He let up just 1 run over 5 IP in his debut but it was against the White Sox, and he still gave up 7 hits. He allowed 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks over 4.1IP in his final rehab start. He allowed 2 runs over 3IP in his only other rehab assignment. 1:35PM: Rays ML +125 (3 Units).
2017's 12th overall pick starts for TB> Shane Baz has seen multiple injuries derail his ability to stay in the MLB. Despite being MLB ready he's made just 11 starts since 2021 and a lengthy Tommy John recovery plays a large part. He posted a 1.57 ERA in 5 June Starts before getting called up in July and allowed 3ER in each of his first 2 MLB starts. With how this series has played out he just needs to give a solid 5 innings. TB got blown out Game 1 and then blew out NY in Game 2. Their top relievers haven't pitched since the break and it's a very strong top half.
NYY SP Marcus Stroman has a 5.3 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 4.59 ERA in 9 starts at Home. He went into Tampa in his final start before the break and allowed 1 run over 4.1 IP. He escaped serious damage and was bailed out by the bullpen. He allowed 7 Hits and 3 free passes. He gave up 5 runs in 5IP vs Cinci in his only other July start. The Yankees bullpen has been far less reliable the past Month or so compared to earlier this season.
