MLB
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3:10PM EST: Rockies ML +120 (5 Units) Cal Quantrill takes the bump for Colorado and after 2 tough road outings to start the season, he's pitched extremely well. He struggled in the Mexico City start against Houston but that's a miserable pitching Venue and the Mexico City totals are set around 16 for that reason. Excluding that start he's allowed just 4 runs over his last 4 starts and 25.2 Innings Pitched. He's fresh off one of his best starts as a pro, tossing 7.2 scoreless on just 3 hits while striking out 9. Cal battled with injuries in 2023 and his performance struggled because of it but he was a frontline starter prior. He had a 3.38 ERA across 32 starts in 2022, a 2.89 in 40 games and 22 starts in 2021, and a 2.25 ERA in 18 games in 2020. He looks like his old self, and he's allowed just 3 runs in his 2 starts (12 IP) at Coors Field. Both quality starts.
This Giants offense was really struggling coming into this Colorado series and they've managed to score some runs, but they really haven't swung the bats too well. They scored 5 in the first game of this series on just 4 Hard-Hit balls that entire game. A couple weakly hit infield singles to 3rd base led to their big 4 run inning. Then in yesterday's 6 run inning they recorded 3 straight hits on sub 80MPH exit Velo. Blooper over short, lazy ground ball to RF, and a Fly Ball down the RF line between the 1st basemen and Right Fielder. That was followed by a sacrifice bunt where all runners reached safely. The Giants would square a couple up after that but some tough luck resulting in big innings thus far. That's partly SF taking advantage of some bad starting pitching. Despite facing the Rockies bullpen for 11.1 innings, the Giants have managed just 1 earned run against them in this series as well.
When Quantrill gets burned it's via the long ball but it's sub 55° with 10+ MPH winds blowing in throughout this entire game today. The Giants are also without 2 of their top sluggers. 8 of their current 33 Homeruns are on the IL. Coors is right there as the most hitter friendly ballpark due to its elevation and size. They're just 9th in HR factor though because it's a very large park and the ball still needs to go a long way. Doesn't get much pitcher friendly than today's current conditions. Once the weather starts to heat up the ball really starts to fly at Coors.
SF starts Keaton Winn. He's coming off his worst start as a pro, allowing 5 earned runs on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 1 HBP. He recorded just 2 outs and failed to escape the first inning. He faced Colorado twice last season, allowing 3ER across 6IP at Home and 3 ER across 4IP at Coors.
The Rockies had a good day at the plate yesterday, scoring 6 runs on 12 hits and 4 walks. They forced SF to use 5 bullpen arms and they put pressure on all of them except for Ryan Walker. He along with closer Camilo Doval have pitched in back-to-back days and Walker 3 of his last 4. The Giants bullpen ranks 29th in ERA and their top two guys are unavailable.
Never hurts to see some heavy reverse line movement in this one either. Despite over 85% of Tickets and 90% of the money coming in on SF, that line continues to drop in Giants bettors favor. This line opened with SF -170 but can be bet for as low as -135 now.
5:05PM EST: Astros Team Total Over 3.5 -120 (3 Units).
Houston's offense has scored 3 and 4 runs while struggling in the first two games of this series. With the Yankees favorites and the total set at 8/8.5 we're able to snag some good value on a low Team Total here. Yankees starter Marcus Stroman's coming off a 1 run outing against Detroit, but he still walked 5 and surrendered 3 hits across 5.1 IP while striking out 3. He had a combined 5.95 ERA in the 4 starts prior (13 ER, 19.2 IP). He hasn't recorded more than 16 outs in 5 straight starts and Houston's scored 4 of their 7 runs on the Yankees bullpen across 5.2 innings. Houston ranks 7th in OPS this season and has two of the best left-handed sluggers, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Marcus Stroman has struggled against Lefties, allowing a .275 BA and 1.83 WHIP. 3 of the 5 Homeruns he's allowed have come to Lefties despite nearly half the at bats. The Yankees short porch makes it a bit easier for those guys too.
