MLB
2 Picks.
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7:20PM EST: BOS/ATL Under 8.5 (2 Units).
Two of the best starters in Baseball so far this season. Kutter Crawford has a 1.56 ERA and Reynaldo Lopez has a 1.5. Atlanta's averaging just 2.5 runs per game over their last 8, scoring 3 or less in 6. The Red Sox offense finally broke through in the final game of the Twins series but had scored just 4 runs in the 3 games leading up to that point. Both teams had the day off yesterday so these bullpens are fully loaded. Wind's also blowing in from right field.
8:40PM EST: Rockies ML +140 (4 Units).
SF Giants start Lefty Kyle Harrison. He has a 3.79 ERA through 7 starts and had a 4.15 ERA in 7 starts last year. He did face Colorado last season, allowing 4 runs across 5 innings at Home. This is his first trip to Coors Field. As a heavy 4-Seam fastball pitcher he doesn't match-up well. 4-Seamers get squared up better than any other pitch due to the high elevation and he throws his 65.5% of the time at an average of 93 MPH. He also uses a changeup 21% of the time and Slurve 13% but those pitches have been hammered. He lives off his 4-Seamer and this just isn't the ballpark for it.
Colorado also has some good Left-Handed hitting this season. Sean Bouchard has a 1.542 OPS in just 12 PA’s, but he's excelled against LHP throughout his career. Jacob Stallings has a 1.144 OPS, McMahon .920, Tovar .920, and Diaz .909. Brendan Rogers numbers against lefties haven't been there this season but he has a career .290 BA and .838 OPS. He also has the 22nd highest BA against 4-Seam fastballs this season. Prospect Jordan Beck hit .322 with a 1.041 OPS vs LHP in 2023.
Dakota Hudson starts for Colorado. He's coming off a strong start against Miami, 2 Runs across 5.2IP. He has fallen victim to the big inning and some tough luck at times this season. He gets a Giants offense that's really struggling today though. They've scored 3 or less in 10 of their last 11 games with the lone exception being 4 runs. They're averaging 2.45 runs per game during that span. Their 2nd best bat and starting catcher Patrick Bailey just hit the IL with a concussion. They also lost their backup catcher for 4-6 weeks. Blake Sabol gets the start behind the dish and he's well below average at throwing runners out. The Rockies haven't run much this season, but they have youth in this lineup today and there's speed in this lineup.
Colorado got the day off yesterday so their top bullpen arms are available. Colorado's just 5-10 at Home this season but the Giants are 6-14 on the road. As bad as Colorado's been they've lost more than a few heartbreakers and close games they could/should have won. That's part of being a bad team but this team's really not White Sox level bad despite the similar record.
