MLB
4 Picks.
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4:05PM EST: PHI/SF Under 7.5 (4 Units)
SF Giants #7 overall prospect is making his MLB debut. He's been lights out in 6 Triple A starts, allowing just 3ER across 26.2 IP (1.01 ERA). Despite being a Right Hander he actually boasts better splits against Left-Handed batters which will come in handy as Phillies top 3 HR hitters bat from the left side. Philly also lost Trea Turner to injury who was tied for 3rd most hits in baseball so there's one less superstar to worry about. The Giants bullpen situation's also favorable. They've lost 3 straight to Philly and as a result haven't used Tyler Rogers or Camilo Doval, their set-up and closer. Their 3rd best bullpen arm, Ryan Walker, threw 12 pitches yesterday but they're pretty much forced to use good arms today. Everyone outside those 3 has thrown 47 or more pitches over the last 5 days. Rogers has thrown 8, Doval's thrown 14, and Walker 28. Rogers and Doval have thrown just twice the previous 9 days. They just need work at this point and they'll get it if this game remains tight. Zack Wheeler starts for PHI and he has a 1.91 ERA through 7 starts. He boast's a 2.73 career ERA at Citizen's bank park too. The Giants offense ranks 19th in OPS this season and has scored just 15 runs over their last 6 games while batting .206 with a .590 OPS. Philly has a plethora of talented bullpen arms and they likely won't be needed to for many outs.
6:10PM EST: DET/CLE Under 7.5 (2 Units)
Two starters that got off to slowish starts but are pitching well. Flaherty's coming off a 6.2 shutout innings with 14 Ks against the Cardinals and McKenzie just held the Astros to 2 runs across 7 innings in Houston. Behind them are the 2nd and 5th ranked bullpens in baseball and they're both decently rested. Both teams have an OPS below .700 over the past week and the Tigers have scored 4 or less in 6 of their last 7 games and Guardians 4 of their last 5.
7:40PM EST: Mariners ML -110 (2 Units).
Luis Castillo struggled in his first 3 starts of the season but he's allowed just 4 combined earned runs over his last 4 starts and 26 innings pitched. Two of those 4 came on the road, one in Colorado and another in Texas, two hitter friendly ballparks. He 3 hit shutout the Braves on 7 innings pitched his last time out on 103 pitches. He's working with an extra days rest today too. He has the 3rd best bullpen behind him and only 1 Seattle reliver has pitched more than once in the last 4 days.
Simeon Woods Richardson starts for Minnesota. He has a 2.45 ERA through 3 MLB starts but a 4.83 xERA. His 3 starts came against Detroit and the White Sox twice, two of the worst offenses in baseball. He's allowed 14 Hits and 3 walks in this last two starts combined (8.2 IP). He's really not an MLB level starter. In 24 games at Triple A in 2023 he had a 4.91 ERA, and he had a 6.08 ERA in 3 games at Triple A this year. The Mariners offense has scored 5 runs in back-to-back games. 7:40PM EST: Padres ML -105 (4 Units).
Yu Darvish is making his 2nd start since returning from the IL and his 7th start of the season. It was a brief stint with neck stiffness, but he looked sharp in his return. He tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Reds on 3 hits without issuing a walk. He'll have a little extra juice tonight facing his former club but he's also plenty familiar with pitching a Wrigley. He has a career 2.76 ERA in 6 starts against the Cubs and in 79 career plate appearances against Darvish the Cubs have a .208 batting average. He threw just 70 pitches in his return from the IL and has an extra days rest so he'll be fresh and better stretched out today. He's a fly ball pitcher but there's sub 60° temps throughout this game and 10+ MPH wind blowing in from right center to help keep the ball in the park.
Justin Steele is returning from the IL today and hasn't made an MLB start since March 28th. He was roughed up in his Triple A rehab start on May 1st, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 Walk across 3.1 IP. He threw just 63 pitches and it's unlikely he pitches deep today. Chicago's bullpen has been terrible, pitching to a 4.57 ERA and going 11 for 19 in save opportunities this season. They're going to have to record their fair share of outs today. San Diego's lineup is hot, batting .314 with an .848 OPS over the last week. They recently traded for Luis Arraez, arguably the best contact hitter in the game today.
