MLB
4 Picks.
FOLLOW THE UNIT INSTRUCTIONS. ASK IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND.
2:20PM EST: MIL/CHC Under 7.5 (2 Units).
MIL SP Joe Ross has a 5.4 ERA through 5 starts but his number's are inflated from a couple tough luck outings. His xERA is at 3.51, his Hard-Hit Rate is good at 39%, and he's only walked 7 batters over his last 4 starts. He's pitched very well outside of Milwaukee's hitter friendly American Family Field, posting a 2.31 ERA in 2 road starts. He has a freshly loaded Brewers bullpen behind him after a day off yesterday. Offensively the Cubs are slashing .170/.256/.508 over the last week and have scored just 16 runs over their last 6 games.
CHC SP Hayden Wesneski has a .87 ERA through 3 appearances (1 start). He made his lone start against Boston his last time out, allowing 1ER across 4IP and 63 pitches thrown. He's bounced back and forth between starter/reliever, making 11 starts in 34 appearances last year. His arm with be a bit more stretched out, enabling him to pitch deeper.
The all important wind is blowing IN at Wrigley. Colder temperatures as well working in the mid to low 50's. It will help keep the ball from leaving the park.
6:40PM EST: Giants ML +145 (3 Units).
Jordan Hicks has been one of baseball's best, pitching to a 1.59 ERA across 6 starts. He's allowed 1ER or less in all but 1 start, allowing 2ER in the outlier. He's working on an extra days rest and the Giants top 3 relievers are available. Tyler Rogers (2.63 ERA 15G), Ryan Walker (2.65 ERA 17G), and Closer Camilo Doval (3.09 ERA 12 G, 6 for 6 SVO) all pitched phenomenally yesterday but had 3 days off prior. Neither one threw more than 16 pitches. In 24 career plate appearances against Hicks, Philly has a .100 BA and .189 wOBA.
Aaron Nola has a 3.2 ERA this season and completed 8 full innings in back-to-back starts allowing 3 and 2 earned runs. They're taxing outings and he threw 106 pitches his last time out. He's got a long history of consistency issues and letting up crooked numbers. He'll throw up 1's and zero's but he also has his fair share of starts letting up 4+. He went just 3 consecutive starts without allowing at least 4 runs just twice last year. And even in 2022 when he finished the year with a 3.25 ERA, he allowed 4 or more in 11 of 32 starts. He gave up 6 ER in his 2024 debut but has allowed 3ER or less in 5 straight. He has terrible numbers in 7 career starts against SF; 6.81 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .896 Opponent OPS. If Hicks performs like he has been the Giants won't need to score many to win this game. 6:45PM EST: TOR/WSH Under 8.5 (2 Units).
Kikuchi had been lights out for Toronto before struggling against the Dodgers his last time out. His defense certainly didn't help him early in that game but LA was swinging the bats well going into it. He still allowed just 4ER across 6IP. The Nationals lineup is much weaker and they're batting just .214 with a .632 OPS vs Lefties this year. He'll be sharper today and closer to the version that allowed just 4 combined runs in the 4 starts prior to LA. Toronto had the day of yesterday so the bullpen is fresh.
Patrick Corbin starts for Washington. As bad as he's been these last few years he's allowed 4ER or less in 4 of 6 starts. Those aren't great numbers but 2/3 of this Nationals bullpen is good and they all got the night off in their 0-6 Loss to Texas yesterday. Corbin's made 2 Home starts this year, allowing 4ER across 6 IP to PHI and throwing 5.1 shutout innings against the Dodgers. Toronto's offense has scored more than 3 runs in just 1 of their last 8 games too. Corbin's a big ground ball guy and Toronto's 3rd in Grounding into Double Play rate this season. Corbin just needs to pass it off without the doors completely blown off.
8:10PM EST: Mariners ML +100 (4 Units).
George Kirby's been one of baseball's best pitchers for the couple years. He posted a 3.39 ERA in 2022, a 3.35 ERA in 2023, and he's fresh off a 7-inning shutout with a career high 12 strikeouts against Arizona. At just 26 years old he's going to be pushing for Cy Young awards over the years. He's been with Seattle since he was drafted in 2019 and has faced the fellow AL West Houston Astros 3 times, pitching to a stellar 1.62 ERA. He went 2-0 in 2 starts against Houston last year allowing just 1 run across a combined 12.1 IP. Seattle also got the night off yesterday which means the 3rd best bullpen is freshly rested and fully loaded to back-up a Kirby Gem.
Ronel Blanco starts for the Astros and his 1.65 ERA through 5 starts is one of the best in baseball. Oddly enough he's allowed 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 Free Passes in 3 straight games. His last start came in the Mexico series against Colorado, throwing 102 pitches. In 202 Minor League Games (34 starts) he posted a 3.54 ERA and never finished a season at AAA below a 3.4. He's figured something out, but you don't just become Jacob Degrom at Age 30. He had a 4.5 ERA in 17 games (7 starts) in MLB last year and Seattle got a look at him. He gave up 3 Runs across 6IP in a Home start against these Mariners last year.
This play’s being made because of George Kirby and the overwhelming bullpen advantage. Houston was able to nail down a win against Cleveland yesterday but their 23rd ranked bullpen is a big reason why they're 9 games under .500. Blanco's only pitched past the 6th inning once this year and it came against Toronto in his first start. It's Seattle's game to lose if this game's tied when the bullpen's roll out.
