Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (5/18/24)

MLB

5 Picks.

4:05PM EST: COL/SF Under 7.5 (2 Units).

Ty Blach's seized a starting spot from pitching so well for the Rockies. He has a 3.0 ERA through 5 games and just held the Rangers offense to 1 run over 5 innings at Coors Field. SF really struggles against Lefties, ranking 21st in OPS. One of their best LHP hitters Michael Conforto is on the IL. Jorge Soler just came back from the IL as well and is 3 for his last 24 with a .125 SLG. The Giants took Rockies starter Ryan Feltner for 5 runs yesterday and then piled on against the bottom of their bullpen. They'll be forced to use better arms today as is and Blach's not going deep. COL's bullpen has pitched very well during their 7-1 run.

Kyle Harrison starts for SF. He has a 3.42 ERA this season and completely shut down these Rockies at Coors Field on May 7th, allowing just 4 hits over 7 innings. He was supposed to start yesterday before being scratched in favor of today, giving him some extra rest. Colorado's 19th in OPS vs LHP this season. The Rockies jumped on Mason Black early yesterday, scoring 3 runs in the first inning. They scored just 2 runs the rest of the way and only 1 on the Giants bullpen. SF's bullpen went 6 innings allowing just 5 hits. Their top 3 guys allowed 1 hit and 1 walk. They'll be available again today and closer Camilo Doval got the night off yesterday.

4:10PM EST: Marlins ML +110 (4 Units).

After a strong Month of April NYM starter Luis Severino has labored in May. Through 2 May starts he's allowed 6 ER over 10IP on 8 hits and 9 walks. He surrendered 2 runs his last time out and 4 the start prior. He has a 4.5 road ERA this season and an 8.14 road ERA as a member of the Yankees last year. He's been much sharper this season however.

Braxton Garrett starts for Miami and his 8.44 ERA is why we're catching value here. Like many Marlins starters he spent the majority of the season on the IL. He just came back against Philly on May 12th. He surrendered 5 runs over 5.1 IP but he was very sharp, striking out 8. He labored out of the gate, allowing 3 runs on a Nick Castellanos Homer in this 1st inning. 3 of the 5 hits he allowed came in that 1st inning. He proceeded to shut Philly down the rest of the way until the 6th inning. He was pulled after walking Bryson Stott on 4 pitches. The bullpen let each of the 2 runners he left on score. He worked up to 80 pitches and his tank had emptied. He's on an extra days rest and we fully expect him to be sharp through his start. The Mets offensive struggleds continued yesterday as they got shutout which allowed Miami to preserve their high leverage relievers. Mets are still 24th in OPS vs Lefties.

6:05PM EST: Nationals ML +155 (3 Units).

Cole Irvin had his worst Command of the season last night and Philly took advantage. He plunked his 1st and 2nd batters of the season yesterday but still allowed just 5 hits. Kid's got great stuff. The Nats bullpen came in and locked it down the rest of the way, not allowing a hit over 3 innings. Mackenzie Gore has pitched well and can pass the baton off before giving up an insurmountable lead. He hasn't allowed more than 3ER in any start this season and has a 2.25 road era. Philly is 10th in OPS vs Lefties compared to 4th vs RHP. He also held the Phillies to 2 runs over 5.2 innings in early April.

Christoper Sanchez starts for the Phillies. He has a 3.43 ERA this season but a .269 opponent BA and 1.5 WHIP. He gets a ton of ground balls which has helped him escape some jams. Washington scored 3 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over 4.1 innings against him back on April 7th. The Phillies bullpen is certainly without their top arm Jeff Hoffman today. He's thrown back-to-back days and 43 pitches total. Their closer Jose Alverado has also thrown 2 straight and he hasn't gone 3 straight in either of the last two seasons. Phillies bullpen is 19th in ERA as it is. Washington just needs a quality start before these games go to the bullpen.

7:10PM EST: A's ML +155 (2 Units).

Ross Stripling has a 4.98 ERA, allowing 26 earned runs this season. However, 11 of those have come in 2 starts (7.2IP) to the Rangers. Excluding Texas, he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any other start from April on. He allowed 2 ER over 5IP at Houston his last time out. The Royals offense has been quiet of late too. They scored 6 runs yesterday (5 run 6th) but scored a combined 15 runs in the 6 games prior. Oakland does have some good bullpen arms and arguably the top closer in the game, but they haven't been used too much.

Seth Lugo and his 1.66 ERA takes the bump for Kansas City. When he gives up runs it's via the long ball and that's the one thing Oakland's good at. They're 5th in HR's this season and 5th in AB/HR as well. Lugo threw 112 pitches in a very taxing 12 strikeout game against the Angels his last time out. He threw a career high 123 in his final start of 2023 but 114 was his career high when he had to pitch again the next week. 112 is a lot on the arm, especially when you're inducing the swings and misses. He went over 100 in 3 starts last season and allowed a combined 11ER in the 3 following starts. He threw 100+ in back-to-back starts before his worst start of the season at Home vs Milwaukee 2 starts back. Great hitting weather with 85° temps and light winds blowing out today. If Lugo isn't sharp and makes some mistakes, the A's can punish him.

7:15PM EST: Angels ML +115 (4 Units).

LA kept rolling and the Rangers struggled continued last night. Patrick Sandoval starts for the Angels and he's coming off a tough start vs KC, allowing 4 runs over 6IP. Really not too bad and he's not one to labor in back-to-back outings. Like yesterday's starter he's a Lefty who the Rangers are considerably worse against. He's also had a ton of success against this Rangers lineup, limiting them to a .131 BA over 77 career plate appearances. The Angels top relievers also got the night off yesterday in their commanding 9-3 win.

Jose Urena starts for the Rangers and it's just a matter of time before he gets blasted. He has a 3.62 ERA this season, but he's finished each of the last 5 seasons with an ERA above 5. The Angels have the hottest bats in baseball, and this is one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball with great hitter weather. At the very least Urena won't pitch deep, and the Angels will get into a bad bullpen. A bullpen they tacked 6 runs on yesterday after Andrew Heaney was pulled in the 4th.