Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (5/17/24)

MLB

5 Picks.

6:40PM EST: Nationals ML +210 (5 Units).

WSH starter Jake Irvin has had 1 rough start in a back-to-back against the Dodgers over his last 6 starts but has otherwise been lights out. He has a 2.4 ERA in 5 road starts and that includes a 6-inning shutout in LA, so he's done it against the best. Fully loaded Washington bullpen behind him and it's been one of the best in baseball of late. Washington has a 2.5 team ERA in the Month of May, 3rd best in baseball.

Zack Wheeler is as good as they get when he's on, but he really struggled his last time out, surrendering 6 runs across 4 innings to the Marlins of all teams. He has a history of struggling for multiple starts before locking back in, but we aren't banking on that. Odds are he's sharp today, but the Nationals have the opportunity to match some elite pitching. The Phillies bullpen is heavily taxed following an 11-inning game against the Mets yesterday. A Phillies bullpen that blew that game. Philly is a great team, and we even gave them out as a future to win the NL East, but they've played just 3 games against teams over .500. That won't change against a 20-22 Washington squad, but the fact remains Phillies a bit overrated at the moment and +210 is great value for a team pitching as well as the Nationals.

7:10PM EST: Marlins ML EVEN (3 Units).

Jesus Luzardo came back from the IL and was sharp against a good Phillies lineup, 5.2 IP and 2 ER. Unfortunately, he wasn't fully stretched out to complete the 6th inning, so his bullpen let one of his earned runs in. The Mets offense ranks 28th in OPS in the Month of May. They've scored more than 4 runs in 9 innings just once over their last 9 games and it was 5 in a blowout loss to Philly. They scored 3 on the bottom of the Phillies bullpen in the 8th down 10-2. The Marlins don't have many, but they have a few quality bullpen arms and they're fresh from a day off yesterday. The Mets also rank 24th in OPS vs Lefties.

Christian Scott starts for the Mets, and he's been a fast-climbing prospect. He didn't pitch higher than Double A last year and made 5 starts at Triple A this year before being called up. He had a 3.2 ERA in 5 AAA starts allowing 7 Homeruns. He's allowed just 4 runs through 2 MLB starts (12.2 IP) but allowed 3 in his most recent to Atlanta. This Marlins offense isn't great but it's still an MLB lineup. More tape out on Scott and minor leaguers could hit him. Scott's not some Major League Ace.

8:15PM EST: Cardinals ML -105 (2 Units).

BOS starter Brayan Bello came back from the IL last week and allowed 2 runs over 5 innings but he really didn't pitch very well. WSH ran into 3 outs on the basepaths, lined out 3 times, and 3 of their 5 Hard-Hit balls resulted in outs. He faces a Cardinals offense that’s finally come alive, hitting .292 with a .790 OPS over their last 5 games. Former MVP Paul Goldschmidt turning it back on has a lot to do with that.

STL starter Kyle Gibson has a 2.1 ERA over his last 5 starts, never allowing more than 2 earned runs. He shut out Boston the last time he saw them at the end of 2023 as a member of the Orioles. The Red Sox offense has been cold, batting .225 with a .654 OPS in May, averaging just 3.2 runs per game. The Cardinals also had the day off yesterday, so their bullpens freshly rested. Boston used 5 relievers and all their high leverage arms in a loss to TB last night.

8:05PM EST: Angels ML +155 (4 Units).

Tyler Anderson takes the mound for the Angels, and he's pitched very well all season outside of a 3 run 4.1 inning start in Boston. He has a 2.92 ERA in 8 starts and that exact ERA both Home/Away oddly enough. He gave up 4 runs over 6.1 IP in his first May start and 3 runs over 6.2 in his 2nd. He got hit with a big inning and gave up a Gram Slam in the 3rd against the Pirates. 1 of the 3 runs allowed against KC came in the 7th inning and they pushed him a bit further in that one with a commanding lead. Either way he's been great, and this Rangers offense has averaged just 2.3 runs per game over their last 6. They're 1-5 over that span getting swept in Colorado and losing 2 of 3 at home against Cleveland. They're also 23rd in OPS vs Lefties compared to 6th vs Righties this season.

Andrew Heaney starts for Texas and he's coming off some good starts. He allowed 2 runs over 5IP at Colorado his last time out but still gave up 8 hits. He has a 2.0 ERA in May but a .275 opponent BA and that's just not sustainable. He hasn't walked anyone so he's staying aggressive, but he had a 6.26 ERA in April and has a career 4.48 ERA. He'll be coming back down to earth sooner rather than later and this Angels lineup has swung the Bats well. They're 7th in OPS in the Month of May and they've scored 29 runs over their last 5 games, scoring 5 or more in 4 of them. They also have a .742 OPS vs Lefties (10th) this season. Trout had a .371 OPS against Lefties before he got injured so it wasn't hm inflating those numbers. There's 4 Angels with an OPS over 1.000 against LHP in the lineup today, 2 more over .900, and another at .852.

Both teams had the day off yesterday, but their bullpens rank 29th and 30th. The Angels bullpen has been much better recently though.

9:40PM EST: D-Backs ML +115 (4 Units).

We won't go against Tarik Skubal very often but it's a solid spot for it here. He's virtually unhittable for Left-handed batters but this D-Backs lineup is majority right-handed, and they have the 2nd highest OPS in baseball against Lefties. They're at .836 and the Orioles are first at .837. Skubal has allowed 2 runs in each of his May starts and with the way the Tigers offense is hitting, that could very well be enough.

Detroit was just shut out in back-to-back games against the Marlins of all teams. The Miami starters in those games were Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weather's. They went into their Tigers start with a 6.57 ERA and a 4.54 ERA. Arizona's starter Ryne Nelson has a 5.33 ERA but he's somebody who's either good, or plain terrible. He did shutout these Tigers over 5.2 innings last season, and he won't need to pitch deep into this game as Arizona's bullpen is in very good shape. Arizona got off to a slow start but they're playing good baseball, winning 7 of their last 10. Detroit on the other Hand has just 3 wins over their last 12 games.