MLB
4 Picks.
12:35PM EST: Orioles ML -125 (2 Units).
Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Blue Jays. He's pitching better than ever, but he struggled against this Orioles team a season ago, during a year he pitched well (3.86 ERA). In 4 starts vs BAL he allowed a combined 9 runs across 20 IP (4.05 ERA) on 22 hits and 8 walks (1.5 WHIP). 1 of those 4 starts was a quality start at Home. He went 4.2 innings exactly in each of his 3 others. Chad Fairchild's the home plate umpire today and he has a history of chopping off the top part of the zone which will hurt Kikuchi's ability to work vertically with his 4-Seamer. Baltimore ranks 2nd in OPS against Lefties this season. Jorge Mateo has a .412 BA and 1.000 OPS in 17 at bats vs Kikuchi, Mountcastle .467/1.912 in 15 AB, Rutschman .412/1.348 in 17 AB, Santander .308/1.009 in 13 AB. Those are 4 of the Orioles top 5 hitters vs Lefties and Gunnar Henderson's the 5th. Henderson's 2 for 10 against him lifetime but he struggled against LHP prior to this season. He's currently batting .317 with a 1.008 OPS against Lefties.
Kyle Bradish starts for Baltimore, and he picked up where he left off last season. He's allowed just 1 run in each of his first 2 starts. He racked up 9 Ks on 90 pitches in his most recent start and will be stretched out for a full workload today. He went 7 innings in each of his starts against Baltimore last season, allowing 1 and 3 runs. The 3 runs came at Toronto. He allowed just 8 combined hits and 1 walk in those 2 starts.
Both teams had the day off yesterday, so the bullpens are fresh. Baltimore had some bullpen issues but they've relinquished Kimbrel's closer role and the pen's been near lights out over the last week +. 2:10PM EST: CWS/WSH Under 7.5 (4U).
Patrick Corbin's thrown the ball well of late. He just went into Boston and held them to 1 run over 5 IP. He tossed a quality start against the Blue Jays the start prior and shutout the Dodgers 4 starts back. He faces the worst offense in baseball today and they're still ice cold, ranking 26th in OPS in May. They have a .609 OPS on the season but that drops all the way down to .546 against Lefties which is pretty incredible. Corbin's more than capable of turning in another good start here and the Nationals bullpen has been one of the best in baseball of late. Despite a Double-Header yesterday it's in great shape too. It was Monday’s game that got postponed and they got tremendous length from their starters the series prior.
Garrett Crochet starts for the White Sox. The 2020 11th overall pick got off to a stellar start to 2024 before a few rough starts. He's turned it back on, allowing just 1 run over his last 2 starts combined (12 IP). He's been tremendous at Home all season, pitching to a 2.83 ERA. Washington's offense also struggles against Lefties, ranking 25th with a .635 OPS. They're also batting just .197 with a .552 OPS over the last week. The White Sox bullpen also has the freedom to use any reliever it wants. 4:10PM EST: COL/SD Under 7.5 (2U).
Colorado's pitching staff has quietly been lights out of late and it's a big reason for their 6-game win streak. Today's starter Austin Gomber has done it pretty much all season long. He struggled in his season opener which isn't unusual for any starter. He posted a 3.95 ERA in April but that was a bit inflated by the 4 runs he allowed across 7 innings to Houston in the Mexico City series. That's a tremendous start at the incredibly hitter friendly venue. He's allowed just 1ER in each of his last 2 starts combined. The most recent a 6.2 inning 1ER performance at Coors field against the Rangers. If you exclude the season opener and Mexico City start Gomber has a 2.45 ERA. As talented as this Padres lineup is, they're batting .202 (28th) with a .632 (26th) OPS vs Left-Handed Pitchers. They just recently acquired Luis Arraez but as a lefty, he struggles against them, hitting .257 with a .611 OPS.
Michael King starts for the Padres. He's battled some consistency issues but when he's on he's one of the hardest to hit in baseball. He has some of the best stuff in baseball and he looked every bit the part in his last 2 starts. He shut out the Diamondbacks in Arizona over 6IP 2 starts back and shutout the Dodgers over 7IP at Home with 11K's his last time out. The Rockies caught him on an off night in Colorado a few weeks back and got to him. It was also King's first start at Coors Field. Their eyes will be playing tricks on them when they see King throw today and we expect another sharp performance out of him today.
Both teams have their best bullpen arms available for this game. 7:10PM EST: Rays ML +115 (2 Units), TB/BOS Over 8 (2 Units).
Taj Bradley had a nice 2024 debut against the Yankees, allowing just 1 run over 6 innings. He was on the lucky side with an xERA of 6.56 from that start. He gave up 7 Hard-Hit balls and was barreled up twice. Some good defense but there were a lot of loud outs right at fielders. Boston's lineup hasn't been stellar lately but Fenway's a tough venue to go into. Boston put up 5 runs on 11 hits and 4 walks in 2 starts (10 IP) against Bradley last year.
Tanner Houck starts for Boston, and he was stellar through April. He's allowed 4 and 3 runs in his two May starts though. He also has a 7.47 career ERA against the Rays across 5 games and 3 starts. He's allowed at least 4 runs in every start.
These two played 12 innings last night and as such the bullpens are heavily taxed. The Rays are without the only 2 relievers that have been elite for them all year. Their closer Pete Fairbanks recently came back and is available today, but he won't go unless there's a save opportunity because he pitched yesterday. The Rays don't have a scheduled day off until next Thursday and he just came back from the IL so there's no wasting him. Boston's closer Kenley Jansen has thrown 4 of the last 5 days and a total of 64 pitches. Might be better for us if he does pitch being as taxed as he is but Boston reliever's not named Jansen are 3 for 10 in save opportunities. Fenway's played as the 2nd most hitter friendly park the last 3 years.
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