Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (5/14/25)

MLB

4 Picks (13 Units).

6:40PM EST: Red Sox ML +210 (4 Units).

LP: H. Dobbins (BOS).

The Red Sox rookie has thrown himself into this starting rotation. He has a 2.78 ERA through 4 starts which is right on par with his xERA of 2.88. He's coming off his best outing, 6 scoreless on the road at KC. His command's been sharp in 2 of his 4 starts, completing 6 innings in each and allowing just 1 combined ER. His chase % and walk % are both ranked inside the 90th percentile. The Kids got great stuff and he's learning to trust it against MLB hitters. Detroit has a pitcher friendly venue and there's 10+ MPH winds blowing in today. His only road start came last week at KC. His first 3 starts came at Fenway and that's one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball. If the command is there he will pitch well again today. He has the stuff and Detroit's never faced him before. He only threw 81 pitches in his most recent outing and should be feeling good. He threw 92 pitches the start prior to that. DET SP Tarik Skubal is as good as they come but Boston's swinging it well of late. They're also 7th in OPS vs LHP. The current Red Sox roster also has a .273 BA in 55 career plate appearances against Skubal.

7:07PM EST: Rays ML +140 (3 Units)

LP: R. Pepiot (TB) / C. Bassitt (TOR).

Pepiot has a 2.61 ERA in 2 road starts. He had a 3.39 ERA in 12 road starts last season. He's allowed just 4 combined runs in his last 3 starts. That was @ SD, @ NYY, and vs PHI, 3 very good lineups. The current Blue Jays roster only has 12 career plate appearances against Pepiot and 1 hit. Pepiot’s gone 6 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts and he's backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. TOR SP Chris Bassitt has a nice 3.35 ERA through 8 starts but he allowed just 2 ER through his first 4 starts. Since then, he's allowed 4 ER in 3 starts and 3 ER in the other. He faced TB 3 times last year and allowed 3ER or more in each start. The current Rays roster has a .344 BA, .342 xBA, .479 wOBA, and .475 xwOBA in 35 career plate appearances against him.

7:14PM EST: White Sox ML +185 (3 Units).

LP: D. Martin (CWS) / N. Lodolo (CIN).

Like many young pitchers David Martin struggles with consistency. He's allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of 8 games but when he's off it gets ugly. He has a 4.01 ERA on the season and posted a 4.32 ERA in 11 games last year. He hasn't been sharp in either of his last 2 starts so there's a little due involved here. With the Reds batting .194 (29th) with a .625 OPS (25th) over the last week this is a solid rebound spot. The Reds have no career plate appearances against Martin either. The White Sox bullpen isn't great but the couple arms we want out there are available. They've used Mike Vasil for multiple innings in winnable games, and he has a 1.88 ERA. He's recorded a win in 2 of his last 3 relief appearances. He, along with Steven Wilson (2.25 ERA) are ideally the only 2 relievers needed.

The White Sox offense has struggled just as much as the Reds have of late, but Nick Lodolo has been terrible at Home for Cinci. He had a 6.09 ERA in 11 Starts at Home last season and has a 6.73 ERA through 3 Home starts this season. Even a minor league team could plate some runs against that.

8:05PM EST: Rockies ML +205 (3 Units).

LP: Antonio Senzatela (COL) / P. Corbin (TEX).

Antonio Senzatela has a 3.79 ERA through 4 road starts. He's struggled at Home which is pretty common at Coors Field. In 55 career plate appearances the Rangers have a .184 BA and .252 wOBA against Senzatela. The Rangers offense hasn't been great of late and they're 28th in OPS at Home on the season. The Rockies bullpen has also pitched very well for quite some time now. Over the last 30 days Jake Bird has a 1.5 ERA in 11 Games, Zach Agnos a 1.64 ERA in 9 games, Angel Chivilli a 2.08 ERA in 8 games, Scot Alexander a 2.08 ERA in 10 games, Seth Halvorsen a 2.38 ERA in 11 games, and Jimmy Herget a 3.68 ERA in 10 games. Not a single Rockies reliever has pitched more than once in the last 3 days. Agnos and Herget are the only two that pitched yesterday. Likely see Chivilli, Alexander, and Halvorsen in this game as they have yet to pitch in this Rangers series.

TEX SP Patrick Corbin is having quite the season given the fact he's had an ERA above 5 in each of his last 4 seasons. He has a 3.13 ERA but an xERA of 4.52. He was still capable of turning in some decent starts the last 4 years but we're not exactly buying a new and improved Corbin. His pitch mix isn't much different than last years, and the quality of contact still isn't great. At some point he's going to get hit around. The Rockies aren't exactly the team you'd pick for that to happen but the meat of their lineup is hitting. Carson Beck, Hunter Goodman, and Ryan McMahon are all swinging hot bats. That's their 3, 4 and 5 hitters tonight. Brenton Doyle leads off and his overall season numbers aren't great but he's batting .360 with a .987 OPS vs LHP. The rest of the Rockies lineup sucks but there's a path to some runs. They're also plenty familiar with Corbin as he's spent his entire career in the NL prior to this season. He was with Arizona for 6 years and then the Nationals for 6. The current Rockies roster has a .270 xBA in 70 career plate appearances against Corbin.