MLB
4 Picks.
FOLLOW THE UNIT INSTRUCTIONS. ASK IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND.
7:05PM EST: ARI/BAL Over 7.5 (1 Unit).
Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.76 road ERA this season. He posted a 5.1 ERA in 5 April starts and opened up May by surrendering 5 Runs on 10 hits across 6IP at Home to the Padres. Baltimore's 3rd in OPS and 2nd in Runs per game this season. They struggled against Trevor Williams, who's dominating every lineup, but have scored 7 and 11 runs in 2 of their last 3. Arizona's bullpen has a 4.67 ERA (23rd) and it's heavily taxed. Ginkel (2.93 ERA in 16 G), and Thompson (1.2 ERA in 15 G) have thrown back-to-back days. Closer Paul Sewald just came back from injury and has thrown 2 of the last 3. Joe Mantiply (3.52 ERA in 15 G) has thrown 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5. Pfaadt's pitched 6 full innings in just 6 of his last 7 road starts. Bad bullpen arms will need to record outs.
Orioles Left-Handed starter Cole Irvin has thrown well of late but he's had solid matchups. He allowed 11 combined earned runs in his first 3 starts (14.2 IP) before finding his groove. The following 3 starts came @ Royals, vs A's, and @ Reds. Kansas City's offense is respectable but they rank 26th with a .630 OPS against Lefties. The A's just started swinging it well of late but they're still 18th in OPS and 29th in runs per game on the road. The Reds are 26th in OPS and 25th vs Lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 1st in baseball with an .866 OPS against Lefties. The Orioles (.832) and Cubs (.814) are the only other teams above .800. Going back they've scored 5, 4, 6, and 11 runs. This is by far Irvin's toughest match-up since he got blasted in Boston. He's 30 years old, has a career 4.3 ERA with a season best 3.98 ERA in 2022. The Baltimore bullpen has also really struggled of late and is just 12 for 20 in save opportunities this season.
6:50PM EST: Rays ML +105 (4 Units).
Clarke Schmidt starts for the Yankees. He has a 3.5 ERA through 7 starts but has yet to complete 6 innings of work. He faced Tampa on April 19th and allowed just 1 run over 5.1 innings but did allow 7 hits and hit 1 batter. He allowed 7 and 3 runs in his two starts against Tampa last season. Despite just 74 career games and 44 starts he's faced Tampa Bay quite a bit. That familiarity helps hitters, and this Rays roster has a .323 BA in 70 career plate appearances against Schmidt. Tampa's also swinging it well of late. They got stymied by a red-hot Chris Flexen their last time out but going back prior to that they've scored 5, 8, 7, 3, and 10 runs.
23-year-old Taj Bradley is making his 2024 debut for the Rays. The highly touted flamethrower had an injury plagued rookie campaign but flashed his potential on numerous occasions last season. He made 2 Triple A rehab starts (11IP), allowing just 1 run on 2 hits (solo HR) while striking out 15. He threw 94 pitches in his last outing on May 3rd and is fully stretched out for today. The Rays bullpen was uncharacteristically struggling to begin the season, but they've rounded into form. Their top 3 arms that have performed all season are freshly rested too.
The Yankees offense has gotten a lot of love for their most recent series but not quite sure they deserve it. They jumped Verlander in his 4th start of the season, which was nice, but the Astros are 28th in ERA and have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Game 2 of that series came against arguably the worst active starter. Then they lost the finale 4-3 because Ronel Blanco was on the bump. New York had scored just 18 runs in the 2 series (7 Games) prior. Taj Bradley also has the advantage of never pitching to the Yankees before. Alex Verdugo is the only player on the Yankees roster with previous at bats against him. New York has lost 3 straight series trips to Tampa Bay.
7:20PM EST: WSH/BOS Under 8.5 (3 Units).
Patrick Corbin takes the mound for Washington and his 6.45 ERA is ugly, but he's been serviceable enough to cash an Under 8.5 in most of his starts, allowing 4ER or less in 5 of 7. He threw a quality start his last time out and shutout the Dodgers across 5.1 innings 3 starts back. The Red Sox bats have run cold, scoring 2 or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Corbin doesn't need to be great; he just needs to pass it off to a good bullpen. The Nationals bullpen has a 3.65 ERA but that's inflated from a poor start. Over the last 15 Days their top 5 arms boast a 1.14 ERA on 39.1 innings pitched. They got the day off yesterday but used every reliver in their 12-inning game against Baltimore on Wednesday. Dylan Floro, Jacon Burnes, and Jordan Weems were the only relievers that didn't pitch on Tuesday all but guaranteeing they pitch tonight. Barnes and Floro have allowed 1 run combined in their 14 innings of work and while Weems struggled at the end of April, he's allowed just 1 ER in April. He was also one of Washington's most reliable arms for the first 4 weeks of the season and allowed more than 1ER in just one start this year.
Tanner Houck starts for Boston, and he has a 1.99 ERA this season. He's coming off what would be considered a poor start for him, allowing 4 Runs (3 Earned) over 6IP in Minnesota. He tossed 6 complete innings of 1 run ball but came out for the 7th and each of the first 3 batters reached base before he was pulled. They would all come in to score. He's allowed more than 2 runs just one other time this year and he followed it up with a complete game shutout at Home against the Guardians. He was still pretty sharp his last time out despite the scorecard. Boston has the #1 ERA in baseball and a good bullpen is a part of that. Boston had the day off yesterday and their top relievers weren't needed in the Atlanta series so they're ready and waiting to follow up their Ace. Sub 50° Temps throughout this game with light winds blowing in. Pitcher Friendly.
8:40PM EST: TEX/COL Under 9.5 (4 Units).
Longtime Rockies pitcher Jon Gray takes the mound for Texas. He's one of very few guys who pitched better at Coors field than he did outside for the majority of his Rockies tenure. Been the opposite for him with Texas, posting a 3.45 road ERA in 2023 and a 1.84 road ERA through 2 starts (3 games) this year. He's been lights out in his 2 most recent outings, allowing a combined 3 ER across 15 innings pitched. Colorado has swung the bat well the last couple of days against some subpar starters and a terrible Giants bullpen, but Jon Gray's pitching is on a different level. He also has more combined starts at Coors Field than every active Rockies starter combined and it's his first trip back. He'll have a little extra juice in the tank to face his former club.
The Left-hander Austin Gomber starts for Colorado, and he's pitched incredibly well outside of his very first start of the season against Arizona (4.2 IP 4ER). He posted a 3.95 ERA in 5 April starts and opened up May with 6 shutout innings. His final April Start came in Mexico City against Houston, 7,349 feet above Sea Level. Those game totals are set around 16 with how hitter friendly the venue is. He allowed just 4 runs across 7 innings despite it. Excluding that start he has a 2.73 ERA over his last 5. The Rangers offense has thrown up some big numbers over the last week, but they've also scored 4 or less in 5 of their last 9. They also rank 23rd in OPS against Left-Handed Pitching this season. Their offense has been carried by 4 very hot batters over the last week and 3 of them are considerably worse against Lefties compared to Righties. Marcus Semien's the lone exception and he's 0-5 lifetime against Gomber.
Sub 55° Temps throughout this game with very little wind blowing out. Pitcher Friendly.