Major League Players Club MLB 1-3 Units (5/19/25)

MLB

3 Picks (9 Units).

6:45PM EST: Red Sox ML +110 (3 Units)

LP: H. Dobbins (BOS).

NYM SP Kodai Senga has a 1.02 ERA through 8 starts. He has an xERA of 3.33 which puts him as the 3rd luckiest starter in baseball just behind Chris Martin of the White Sox and AJ Smith-Shawver of the Braves. At some point that luck is going to run out and the ever hitter friendly Fenway Park is just the venue for it. He struggled in his only career start here, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk on just 3.1 IP. He has a career 2.58 ERA so it's not like he's ever been bad. Boston’s 6th in OPS on the season and sporting a .785 OPS over the last week.

BOS SP Hunter Dobbins has been incredible through 5 innings. His struggles have come in the 6th and once his pitch count ticks up over 80. He loses his Velo and struggles the 3rd time through the order. He has a 2.16 ERA through the first 5 innings before ballooning up to 20.25 in the 6th. His first 3 starts came at Home and his last 2 on the road. He allowed 2 ER on 5 IP in his debut, 1 ER on 6 IP in his 2nd start, and 4 ER on 5.2 IP in his 3rd. 3 of the 4 ER in his 3rd start came in the 6th inning. Boston lost yesterday but Sean Newcomb came on in relief of starter Brayan Bello and went the rest of the way. The Red Sox don't need length from Dobbins today as every Red Sox reliever not named Newcomb has thrown 39 pitches or less the last 5 days. The Mets offense has never seen Dobbins before and they're ice cold. They've scored 9 runs over their last 5 games and rank dead last in both BA and OPS during that time.

10:05PM EST: Angels/Athletics Over 9.5 (3 Units).LP: J. Soriano (LAA) / J.T. Ginn (ATH).

Soriano has a 5.95 ERA at Home and a 1.95 ERA on the road. 4 of his 5 road starts have come against the White Sox, Rays, Rangers, and Twins though. Those are 4 of the least productive offenses in the game. He's fresh off a great start at San Diego though, allowing 2 runs on 7 IP. He threw 107 pitches, and this is a guy generally capped at 90. It's just the third time he's thrown more than 90 pitches this year. He threw 93 vs TB and allowed 3 ER on 10 hits and 2 walks across 5.2 IP in the following start. He threw 94 vs DET and allowed 3 ER on 8 hits and 4 walks on 5 IP in the start after that. He's only touched triple digits once in his career and it was 100 exactly in 2024. He lasted just 2.2 innings and allowed 6 runs in the following start against these Athletics. Now he's going into the 2nd most hitter friendly venue in baseball in 2025 after a 107-pitch outing.

ATH SP J.T. Ginn has made 3 career starts did fine in his debut against the Mets but the Rookie has allowed 3 ER in each of his last 2 starts on just 4.2 and 3.2 IP. Even in his debut he went just 5.1 IP. The Athletics bullpen has been a mess of late and that includes stud closer Mason Miller. They have just 2 relievers with an ERA below 4.38 over the last 30 days and one of them has pitched each of the last 2 days. The Angels bats are riding high off a 3-game sweep of the Dodgers. They scored at least 6 runs in all 3 games and 23 runs total.

10:10PM EST: DBacks/Dodgers Over 9.5 (3 Units).

LP: B. Pfaadt (AZ) / L. Knack (LAD).

AZ SP Brandon Pfaadt has a 6.64 ERA through 4 road starts this year. He's allowed 4 runs or more in 3 of those 4. The exception was at Miami. He has a career 4.73 ERA in 5 career starts against the Dodgers and a 6.3 ERA in 2 starts at Dodgers stadium. The Dodgers were also just swept by the Angels and those bats are bound to deliver. They scored 4, 9, and 2 runs in the 3 losses against the Angels so it's not like they've been unproductive. They've scored 7 or more runs in 8 of their 16 May games. The Diamondbacks bullpen hasn't been great either.

LAD SP Landon Knack had a 3.65 ERA in 12 starts for the Dodgers last year and a 6.61 ERA through 4 starts this year. He made a couple April appearances before being sent back down to the Minors. He has a 3.98 ERA in 4 games and 3 starts at AAA this year. He's made 2 starts since getting called back up. He threw 5 scoreless in Miami on May 7th and then got shelled for 5 runs on 4.2 IP vs the Athletics. He's made 2 career starts against Arizona. His first came in his 3rd career MLB start. He allowed 1 ER on 4 hits, 1 BB, and 1 HBP across 5 IP @ AZ. His 2nd start was at Home, and he gave up 4 runs on 4.1 IP. The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been great and it's also heavily taxed. The Diamondbacks are 3rd in OPS on the Season and 3rd in OPS in May. They’re red hot with a .924 OPS over the last week, trailing only the Dodgers.