MLB
2 Picks.
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4:05PM EST: CHC/PIT Under 7 (2 Units).
Justin Steele's emerged as one of the best starters in baseball and he's allowed just 1 run through his first 2 starts of the season. The Cubs have been careful, but he'll be better stretched out today and he'll be plenty aggressive against the league's worst offense over the last week. The Cubs bullpen isn't reliable enough to back Chicago in this one.
One of the highest touted prospects in baseball history, Paul Skenes, is making his debut and we're buying into the hype. He had a .99 ERA in 7 Triple A starts with a ridiculous 14.82 K/9. He has some of the best stuff in the Majors. As long as he can hit the strike zone today the Cubs are going to have a very difficult time scoring runs against him and the Pirates top relivers are available behind him.
4:10PM EST: Marlins ML +110 (2 Units).
This line alone pretty much tells you everything you need to know. The #1 team in baseball against the worst Team in baseball and they're just -130 without the line moving despite the entire universe hammering Philly. We'll break it down regardless...
Tajuan Walker starts for Philly, and he flat out sucks right now. His Velo's down and he's been blasted in Spring, in his Triple A Rehab starts, and in both of his MLB starts. Through 2 starts his average exit Velo, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, and xERA are all in the bottom 1% of baseball. He's been barreled up 9 times already (24.3%) which says a whole lot. His stuff flat out doesn't play right now, and even minor league hitters are squaring it up. He's also considerably worse on the road, posting a 5.25 ERA in 15 road starts last year and an 8.53 in his lone road start this year. This Marlins roster has a career .303 BA, .481 xSLG, and .386 xwOBA in 86 plate appearances against Walker.
The Left-Handed Jesus Luzardo returns from an IL stint today. He struggled earlier this year, and his health had a lot to do with it. He had a 3.32 ERA in 2022 and a 3.58 ERA in 2023. He also posted a 2.99 ERA at Home last year. He's a premier frontline starter when he's on and his stuff was sharp in his rehab assignment. He also has a 3.26 ERA in 5 career starts against the Phillies. The Marlins bullpen has plenty of very, very bad arms but they do have a few quality options. They have 4 relievers available today with ERA's that start with a 2 with at least 10+ appearances and Anthony Maldanado hasn't allowed a run through 6 games this season. They have the horses to back a vintage Luzardo start.
