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Major League Players Club MLB 1-2 Units (5/10/24)

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7:05PM EST: ARI/BAL Over 7.5 (1 Unit).

Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.76 road ERA this season. He posted a 5.1 ERA in 5 April starts and opened up May by surrendering 5 Runs on 10 hits across 6IP at Home to the Padres. Baltimore's 3rd in OPS and 2nd in Runs per game this season. They struggled against Trevor Williams, who's dominating every lineup, but have scored 7 and 11 runs in 2 of their last 3. Arizona's bullpen has a 4.67 ERA (23rd) and it's heavily taxed. Ginkel (2.93 ERA in 16 G), and Thompson (1.2 ERA in 15 G) have thrown back-to-back days. Closer Paul Sewald just came back from injury and has thrown 2 of the last 3. Joe Mantiply (3.52 ERA in 15 G) has thrown 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5. Pfaadt's pitched 6 full innings in just 6 of his last 7 road starts. Bad bullpen arms will need to record outs.


Orioles Left-Handed starter Cole Irvin has thrown well of late but he's had solid matchups. He allowed 11 combined earned runs in his first 3 starts (14.2 IP) before finding his groove. The following 3 starts came @ Royals, vs A's, and @ Reds. Kansas City's offense is respectable but they rank 26th with a .630 OPS against Lefties. The A's just started swinging it well of late but they're still 18th in OPS and 29th in runs per game on the road. The Reds are 26th in OPS and 25th vs Lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 1st in baseball with an .866 OPS against Lefties. The Orioles (.832) and Cubs (.814) are the only other teams above .800. Going back they've scored 5, 4, 6, and 11 runs. This is by far Irvin's toughest match-up since he got blasted in Boston. He's 30 years old, has a career 4.3 ERA with a season best 3.98 ERA in 2022. The Baltimore bullpen has also really struggled of late and is just 12 for 20 in save opportunities this season. 


BONUS PICK! 3-5 UNIT PLAYS ARE NOT INCLUDED WITH YOUR SUBSCRIPTION. 7:20PM EST: WSH/BOS Under 8.5 (3 Units). Patrick Corbin takes the mound for Washington and his 6.45 ERA is ugly, but he's been serviceable enough to cash an Under 8.5 in most of his starts, allowing 4ER or less in 5 of 7. He threw a quality start his last time out and shutout the Dodgers across 5.1 innings 3 starts back. The Red Sox bats have run cold, scoring 2 or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Corbin doesn't need to be great; he just needs to pass it off to a good bullpen. The Nationals bullpen has a 3.65 ERA but that's inflated from a poor start. Over the last 15 Days their top 5 arms boast a 1.14 ERA on 39.1 innings pitched. They got the day off yesterday but used every reliver in their 12-inning game against Baltimore on Wednesday. Dylan Floro, Jacon Burnes, and Jordan Weems were the only relievers that didn't pitch on Tuesday all but guaranteeing they pitch tonight. Barnes and Floro have allowed 1 run combined in their 14 innings of work and while Weems struggled at the end of April, he's allowed just 1 ER in April. He was also one of Washington's most reliable arms for the first 4 weeks of the season and allowed more than 1ER in just one start this year.

 

Tanner Houck starts for Boston, and he has a 1.99 ERA this season. He's coming off what would be considered a poor start for him, allowing 4 Runs (3 Earned) over 6IP in Minnesota. He tossed 6 complete innings of 1 run ball but came out for the 7th and each of the first 3 batters reached base before he was pulled. They would all come in to score. He's allowed more than 2 runs just one other time this year and he followed it up with a complete game shutout at Home against the Guardians. He was still pretty sharp his last time out despite the scorecard. Boston has the #1 ERA in baseball and a good bullpen is a part of that. Boston had the day off yesterday and their top relievers weren't needed in the Atlanta series so they're ready and waiting to follow up their Ace.

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