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6:07PM EST: PHI/ATL Under 8 (3 Units)
Not many pitchers have splits against Atlanta like the Phillies Zack Wheeler. He has a 3.18 career ERA against Atlanta across 27 starts. His combined stat line in his last 6 starts in Atlanta: 40.2 IP, 9 ER, 2.01 ERA. That dates back to 2021 and includes his post-season start in Atlanta last year. He's been a big game pitcher for Philadelphia. He posted a 2.78 ERA across 6 post-season starts last year and allowed just 1 ER over 6.2 IP in this wild card round.
Atlanta starts Max Fried. He's one of Baseball's best Pitchers and he closed out the Month of September with a 1.88 ERA across 4 starts, including 5 IP of 1 run ball against these Phillies. Fried had a 2.55 ERA across 14 starts this season and a 2.48 ERA across 30 starts in 2022. This is his first start of the 2023 post-season and it's a big spot to prevent ATL from going down 0-2.
Both bullpens are stacked and fresh from a day off. They also have tomorrow off so there's no reason to hold back. PHI has Jose Alverado with a 1.74 ERA, Hoffman 2.41 ERA, Strahm 2.82 ERA, Kimbrel 3.26 ERA and with plenty of post-season experience, and Dominguez with a 3.78. Atlanta has Iglesias who has a 2.75 ERA and is 33 of 37 in SVO, Joe Jimenez 3.04 ERA, Kirby Yates 3.28 ERA, AJ Minter 3.76 ERA but a 1.85 ERA since the All-Star Break. They also acquired Pierce Johnson from the Rockies at the deadline and he has a .76 ERA across 24 games since coming over.
There's a ton of very good pitchers at both teams disposal here and if a guy comes out struggling there's another good pitcher in wait. Good offenses but they're going to need to come through with big hits in limited spots to push this over.