NCAAF
(9/9/22) 7:30 PM Eastern.
Spread: Louisville +6 / UCF -6
Moneyline: Louisville +190 / UCF -225
Total: Over / Under 62
The Louisville Cardinals (0-1) and UCF Knights (1-0) meet in a non-conference match-up Friday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30p.m. eastern time at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Louisville
The Cardinals lost to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in their opener. It was a sloppy performance from Louisville as they turned the ball over 3 times. They moved the ball past the Syracuse 40 on 5 different occasions but came away with just 7 points as a result. They did produce 6.2 yards per play last week, they just need to clean it up. Dual threat QB Malik Cunningham failed to get anything going on the ground averaging just 2.6 YPC but Tennessee transfer RB Tiyon Evans had a successful day, racking up 89 yards on 13 attempts. Tyler Hudson was the only productive WR on the night collecting 8 balls for 102 yards. Defensively the Cardinals really struggled. Syracuse racked up 449 yards of total offense, 207 of which came on the ground. A lot of that had to do with Syracuse controlling the ball most of the game. Syracuse’s offense was on the field for over 37 minutes.
UCF
As expected, the Knights dominated SC State at home last week by a score of 56-10. Knights HC Gus Malzahn went with the Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee at QB. He lit it up for 308 yards passing, 86 yards rushing, and 5 total touchdowns. He spread the ball around a bit, Javon Baker led the team with just 5 receptions. Starting RB Isaiah Bowser didn’t have a great game, totaling just 83 yards on 23 carries but he did score twice. I’m sure racking up 600 total yards against an inferior opponent feels great, but their first real test of the season comes against Louisville Friday Night.
The Pick
UNDER 62. The clock is going to get chewed up by both teams’ ability to run the football. Louisville features one of the most dynamic rushing attacks with Malik Cunningham at QB and Tiyon Evans at RB. They also have 4 returning starters on their offensive line from a season ago. They had success on the ground against Syracuse early but had to get away from it once they fell behind. UCF’s defense also lost 5 of its starters along their front 7 from last year, Louisville is going to attack that. For UCF their rushing attack brings a combined 132 starts on its offensive line, both leading rushers from a year ago, and a new dual threat QB. They’re also facing a Louisville defense that surrendered 207 yards on the ground last week. Louisville’s defense should fare better tonight though. It was their first game of the season and they had to play a total of 37 minutes, it’s a bit of a miracle they didn’t surrender more. The under has hit in 4 of the Cardinals last 5 games on Grass and the under is also 5-1 the game after the Knights score 40+. The offenses should move the ball but it’s going to take a lot of time to do it, 62 points is too high.
