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Kent State vs Bowling Green NCAAF Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 11/9/22


(11/9/22) 7:00 PM Eastern.

Spread: Kent State -2.5 / Bowling Green +2.5

Moneyline: Kent State / Bowling Green +110

Total: Over / Under 55.5

The Kent State Golden Flashes and Bowling Green Falcons meet for the 90th time on Wednesday night. BG leads the all time series 60-23-6 but Kent State has won the last four. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00p.m. eastern time at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.

Kent State (3-6)

It’s been a tough season for Kent State, one of the favorites to win the East, they’ll need to win out for hopes of a post-season berth. The dominant rushing attack knows as the “Flash Fast” that saw them average 248.7 yards per game last season isn’t quite what it was. It’s still strong, averaging 211.3 yards per game and that’s helped Kent State to the 2nd ranked offense in the MAC in terms of yardage. Starting QB Collin Schlee hasn’t been asked to do too much, averaging just 216.4 passing yards per game but he’s been a threat on the ground. His 381 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry keep the defense honest.

The Defense has been a nightmare, allowing over 454.2 yards per game and 31.6 points per game. Even 2 of the worst offenses in the conference has had field days on them. Miami Ohio averages just 19.6 points per game but still managed 415 yards of total offense and 27 points. And an Akron offense that averages 19.5 PPG had 492 yards and also scored 27 points. They’ve allowed 27 or more in each of their last 4 games and the last time they played on the road, Toledo hung up 52 of them.

Bowling Green (5-4)

The Falcons look to gain bowl eligibility for the first time since 2015. There’s not much to say about their offense as they rank in the bottom half of every major offensive category in the Conference. Senior QB Matt McDonald has been solid though, he’s completed 60.1% of his passes for 1,781 yards but the major thing is his 16 TD passes to just 3 interceptions. He’s a good decision maker that sees the field well.

The Defense isn’t very good either. Allowing 31.8 PPG and 418.6 YPG. 261.4 of that comes through the air while 157.2 comes on the ground. It’s been better lately but they’ve played some awful offenses. Since October 1st they haven’t faced a single opponent in the top 100 in yards per play. That combined with a strong pass rush has helped them get their 5 wins. The 33 combined sacks ranks 3rd in College Football.


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The Pick

Kent St vs Bowling Green OVER 55.5. Mediocre defensive play by both teams and better match-ups for the offense. Kent State’s offense can move the ball on anybody. Their 431 yards per game rank 2nd in the MAC and 211 rushing YPG ranks 1st. Bowling Green’s defense has struggled, allowing 418.6 YPG but it’s the 157.1 rushing YPG that’s pivotal. When the “Flash Fast” rushing attacks gets moving their passing attack becomes lethal. Bowling Green’s recent success on defense can be attributed to terrible opponents. They haven’t faced a single team ranked in the top 100 in yards per play since the start of October and two of those opponents put up a combined 874 yards and 66 points. Neither team compares to Kent State offensively. On the other side of it Kent State’s defense is so bad the Bowling Green offensive struggles don’t even matter. Kent State allows 454.2 total YPG and 31.8 PPG. On the road that balloons to 39.2 PPG. They’ve faced two of the worst offenses in the MAC and even they fared well. Miami (OH) (averages 19.6 PPG) had 415 yards of total offense and 27 points. Akron (19.5 PPG) had 492 yards of total offense and scored 27. Bowling Green’s offense is better than both of them and they’re playing at home tonight. Back and forth affair tonight.

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