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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 1/21/23


(1/21/23) 4:30 PM Eastern.

Spread: Jaguars +9 / Chiefs -9

ML: Jaguars +375 / Chiefs -500

Total: Over / Under 52.5

The Pick: JAX vs KC Over 53.

Two very aggressive coaches with good offense going up against subpar defense. Pat Mahomes and KC already torched this Jacksonville defense for 486 yards and 27 points earlier this season. Could have been more if they weren’t leading by double digits most of the game. Pacheco also fumbled inside the Jags 20. Mahomes himself, 26/35 331 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Some would argue Jacksonville’s defense has improved, but they haven’t. Following that game against KC, BAL put up 27, DET put up 40, TEN scored more than 20 for its 5th and final time of the season, and then Dallas dropped 34. People got impressed by JAX holding Zach Wilson and the 29th ranked Jets scoring offense to 3, Davis Mills and Houston’s 30th ranked scoring offense to 3, then Josh Dobbs (Who joined TEN 2 weeks prior) and the Titan’s 28th ranked scoring offense put up 16. Then they played a the Chargers last week and got hit for 31. KC’s offense is the #1 unit in football and Reid and company won’t be outcoached and choke against Doug Pederson’s staff.

On the flip side the Jags offense is good enough to score on anyone. Putting up 30 or more in 4 of their last 6 games. You saw what happened when they fell behind against LA, up tempo air raid. They’ve had a lot of success going fast, something both teams like to do. KC ranks 11th and JAX 12th in seconds per play. The KC defense is nothing special either. Denver (One of the worst defenses of the past 20 years) dropped 28 on them week 14 and 24 week 17. Even Houston scored 24 in week 15. With playmakers all over the field, the Jags will score.

Both Reid and Pederson like to push the envelope and stay aggressive. Field goals won’t win this game as both teams play and win through their offense. They don’t settle for field goals or punt on 4th and short. Reid won’t make the same mistake the Chargers did and take his foot off the gas pedal if they get a big lead either.

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