CFB (3 Picks)
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12:00pm est: NC State +8 (4 Units)
Notre Dame is off to a 2-0 start after beating a weak Navy team week 0 and blowing out FCS opponent Tennessee State in Week 2. This is their first real test for their new look offense and it's not some roll over. NC State didn't just have one of the best defenses in the ACC last year, but in all of College Football as they ranked 11th in scoring defense among FBS programs.
The NC State defensive turnaround came in 2021 when they ranked 3rd in total yards per game and 2nd in points per game amongst the ACC. In 2022 they were the ACC's #1 scoring defense and held opponents to just 102.8 rushing yards per game (11th best in FBS). It's even more impressive considering their offense was terrible last year, ranking 11th in the ACC in yards per game. More on the Wolf Pack offense later.
Tony Gibson has been the defensive coordinator for NC State since 2020. He's done a remarkable job turning the defense around and NC State will be at or near the top of defensive rankings again in 2023. It's one of the deepest defensive rosters he's ever had and those are his own words. The guys he recruited back when he first arrived are now entering year 4 in his system. They've excelled as a rush defense and that's huge considering Notre Dame still plays through the ground game and their offensive line.
Former Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has coasted through his first two weeks at Notre Dame but the games about to speed up. He's not throwing the ball to wide open receivers in this one. He faced NC State as a Member of the Demon Deacons last year and lost 21-30, throwing 3 interceptions. It's also his first road game and NC State is one of the toughest ACC Stadiums to play in. The Wolf Pack are 33-7 at Home since 2017 and have won 23 straight against non-conference opponents. How comfortable is Hartman in ND's system, how well does he adjust at the LOS with the crowd roaring.
Notre Dame also has a new offensive coordinator and first time play caller in Gerad Parker this season. From an X's and O's standpoint it's a clear advantage for NC State. Calling plays on the road is much different than at home as well. A lot of firsts for this ND offense in this game against a stout NC State Defense.
For the NC State Offense the addition of OC Robert Anae and QB Brennan Armstrong isn't getting enough attention. Yes, they're both in their first season with NC State but these two dominated CFB together at Virginia in 2021. They led UVA to 515.8 yards per game that year, ranking 3rd in College Football. They were the #1 passing offense amongst power 5 programs
Armstrong completed 65.2% of his passes for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns that year. He also ran for 9 touchdowns as well. He entered the 2022 season as the man to watch but his Offensive Coordinator left for Syracuse and he flopped in 2022. They now reunite at NC State and he looked like his 2021 self in game 1. He completed 17 of 26 (65.4%) passes for just 155 yards but he added 19 rushes for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was efficient and made plays with his legs.
That came in UConn against a much better Huskies team than years past. They're poised for a strong year defensively and are led by former UCLA head coach Jim Mora. Mora had quite a bit of success with the Bruins before falling out of favor years later. He's in his 2nd season at the helm with UConn.
Notre Dame does have a good defense but there's a lot of turnover from their 2022 roster and specifically on the defensive line. Through Notre Dame's first two games they don't look nearly as strong as last year's group. They had 2 sacks against Navy which doesn't say much considering they run the Triple Option but to only coming away with 2 against an FCS opponent they beat 53-6 is a bit concerning.
Overall this is a very well coached NC State team playing at home in a very hostile environment. They competed and banged with some very good programs last year and that was with half an offense. Lotta new pieces for the Irish and you know the Wolfpacks going to be fired up to play the #10 team in the Country at home.
6pm est: SMU +16 (2 Units)
SMU is a strong offensive team and Oklahoma's defense has yet to show they can stop an FBS offense. Sure OU routed Arkansas State 73-0 in week 1 but that means practically nothing. SMU's defense impressed as they beat Louisiana Tech 38-14. 7 of Tech's 14 coming with 30 seconds to go against Mustang back-ups.
Preston Stone is in for QB at SMU. The highly touted prospect takes over for Tanner Mordacai, who transferred to Wisconsin. He takes over an offense that ranked 14th in yards per game and 12th in points per game in 2022. He and the majority of starters enter year two under HC Brett Lashlee and his offensive system. They did lose star WR Rashee Rice to the NFL but they're plenty deep at the position.
They have 7 capable WR's and that's thanks in part to HC Lashlee's former stomping grounds. He previously served as OC for Miami before joining SMU before the 2022 season. He nabbed 6 Miami transfers en route to the 12th ranked transfer class. Two WR's, their starting RB, starting and arguably the best Center in the AAC now, and a pair of defensive lineman. They also grabbed RB LJ Johnson JR from TX A&M. He ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries last week.
They had the #1 offense in the AAC in 2022 and likely will again. They lost a couple starters along the OL but with the transfer portal this unit figures to be even better than last year. Preston Stone was a highly touted 4 star QB who's in his 3rd year of Collegiate Football. Anytime he's touched the field, he's delivered.
Even if you don't watch College Football you're probably aware of Oklahoma's defensive struggles. It's been this way for what feels like forever. It's why they elected to bring in former Clemson DC Brent Venables to be Head Coach. Last year was more of the same, allowing 461 yards per game which ranked 123rd among 131 FBS programs. They were actually worse than they were in 2021. Venables was able to land a a few big name defensive prospects in recent years but it's not enough. We do expect some improvement for OU's defense in 2023 but not enough to make them a respectable defense.
As far as SMU's defense against the OU offense, they're going to let up points but they should be able to get stops here and there. Their revamped secondary, thanks to the transfer portal, can provide some resistance. Their defensive line is vastly improved as well. Racking up 6 sacks and holding Louisiana Tech to 1.2 yards per carry. Oklahoma's an entirely different animal but there's some good players on the Mustangs defense. They don't need to outright stop OU, just get off the field enough to let the Mustangs offense keep SMU around.
7pm est: Alabama -7 (4 Units)
Not a lot of noise coming out of Tuscaloosa this season and that's never good for the rest of College Football. The Alabama QB battle throughout camp has some questioning the Tides offense but they're going to be just fine. Jalen Milroe earned QB1 honors and came out and showed out week 1 amassing 5 touchdowns. Granted it was against Middle Tennessee but you saw what you wanted to see. The ability to make accurate throws deep down the field along with his rushing ability.
The Alabama offense is going to look more like the Jalen Hurts led offense's of the past. A big physical QB with the ability to run the football. They may not be as prolific but they will be more balanced. The Bryce Youngs and Tua's of the world aren't running in between the tackles and getting tough yards, Milroe will.
There are plenty of new faces in their starting units but that turnover's nothing new for the Crimson Tide. People seem to forget Alabama has had the #1 recruiting class in 3 of the past 4 seasons and ranked 2nd in the one outlier. They're going to lack some experience but they're still loaded with talent. All being taught by the greatest College Football coach that ever lived.
Texas's defense was a bright spot last year and by all accounts over performed. Question the ability for them to replicate that success. They rank 68th defensively in the FBS in terms of returning production and they were never a hot destination for defensive prospects. They were terrible on defense for years leading up to last season.
There's also a ton of hype surrounding Texas QB Quinn Ewers and it's because he looked good for 12 passes against Alabama last year before he got hurt. He completed just 58.1% of his passes in 2022 for 2,177 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He faced 3 legitimate defenses after returning from the Alabama injury and the Longhorns offense was shut down each time. Texas scored 21 against Iowa State, 10 against TCU, and 20 against Washington. TCU's defense wasn't even great either.
Ewers threw for 172 yards and 171 in 2 of those 3 games. He also had the best running back in College Football by his side. Unfortunately for him, Bijan Robinson is off to the NFL courtesy of the 8th overall pick. Bijan ran for 1,580 yards averaging 6.1 yards per clip last season. There's simply no replacing that guy.
Then there's the personal side of this game. Texas took the allotted Alabama tickets and placed them in the nosebleeds when the Crimson Tide visited last season. Since Texas isn't a part of the SEC yet they aren't protected by the in conference rules that don't allow that. So this season Alabama has decided to return the favor and with the poor seating the Texas Band isn't even showing up.
By all accounts Texas probably should have beaten Alabama last season. Now people are calling for an upset with Texas going into Tuscaloosa and pulling out a win. Texas players looking forward to playing Alabama in Alabama. Call it what you want but for Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide it's disrespect.
Texas fells like they have Bama's number after last year. Texas HC Steve Sark was a longtime coordinator for Nick Saban. These two QB's are heavily intertwined. Milroe committed to Texas but flipped to Alabama 3 days after Ewers committed to Texas. The Longhorns are trying to secure their spot among the SEC for next year and recruits will be watching.
There's a lot going into this game and it is just personal. We don't think Texas is ready for it. Ewers isn't at home, he's going into Tuscaloosa at Prime Time Saturday night. Ewers and Texas fell flat on their face on every big stage last season and this is their biggest game of the season. There was no pressure during Texas's 8-5 season last year but there is now.
We have Alabama giving Texas a proper welcoming to SEC Football.
