Gridiron Players Club (12/3/23)

(2 Picks)

1:00PM EST: ARI/PIT Under 41 (4 Units)

The hype is on Pittsburgh after firing OC Matt Canada and proceeding to put up over 400 yards of offense but let's pump the brakes a bit here. While they are undoubtedly better off, that was still against a Bengals team with Jake Browning under center. Despite the 421 total yards, they still managed just 16 points. Their offense was also on the field for over 37 minutes of the game. To be honest they still underperformed. You don't just go from one of the worst offenses in football to good by changing a play-caller.

The Arizona defense isn't very good, but they've had moments. They've also had to play most of the year without Kyler Murray. It's hard to play defense without a competent offense. Murray has played in 3 games so far, the ARI defense has allowed 23, 21, and 37 points. The 37 came in division against the Rams with their full complement of weapons for the first time in a long time. Namely RB Kyren Williams, who returned with 204 yards of total offense.

The Cardinals offense however still stinks. They scored 25 in Kyler's first game back but managed just 16 against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 against the Rams last week. The Pittsburgh defense is so good they were able to shut teams down despite their terrible offense. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in 7 straight games and are allowing just 15 points per game during that span. For reference the SF 49ers have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL allowing 15.5 points per game this year. Pittsburgh currently ranks 5th at 18.6. They'll shut down the Cardinals offense and they're plenty familiar with containing a mobile QB having to play Baltimore at least twice a year.

1:00PM EST: MIA/WSH Over 49 (3 Units)

Washington's defense is just terrible and specifically in the passing game. They traded away their pass rush and have arguably the worst secondary behind them. They allow 264.6 passing yards per game and Miami has the #1 ranked passing offense. They are easily the worst in the NFL, allowing 29.2 points per game. Rivera did just fire Jack Del Rio but that just feels like more of a scapegoat move. Jack Del Rio is a fine coach and has led good Washington defenses when the talent was there. He had the 5th ranked scoring defense his first year in Washington in 2020 and the 8th ranked last year. He's been coaching defense for a very long time. He could have been off the beat some, but this defensive roster just lacks talent.

Miami's offense is getting more explosive today too. RB De'Von Achane is set to return after a long absence. He's a HR threat anytime he touches the ball evident by the rookies 11.8 yards per carry average. Miami also just went into NY and tore the Jets defense to shreds. The Jets offense is putrid, but their defense has twice the talent that Washington has, and they couldn't keep up. The Dolphins are going to score some points today.

Washington should be able to score as well. Miami's defense plays well at home, but they don't travel. The 27.3 points per game they allow on the road ranks 28th. The Tim Boyle led Jets managed 13 points last week, 21 in KC, 31 in PHI, 48 in BUF, 17 in NE, and 34 in LAC. The Jets and Patriots rank 30th and 31st in points per game. The Jets offense hasn't scored more than 13 points in a game in 5 straight weeks either. They let up points and Washington's offense does average over 20 points per game. They rank 14th in yards per game but don't perform great in the Red Zone.

Washington's defense is just atrocious, and we don't think changing the play-caller is going to change much. They lack talent and the horses to get the job done. Miami should set the pace of this game with Washington hanging around a bit. Much easier to play at Home as opposed to the road. They scored at least 19 points at home in all but 1 of their home games.