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(1 Pick)
8:00PM EST: Oregon -9.5 (4 Units)
Oregon is simply the better coached and more talented team. Yes, the Ducks lost to them by 3 in Washington earlier this year, but much has changed since then. That game was there for Oregon to win too but they just squandered so many chances. For starters the first half ended with an incomplete pass on 4th and goal from the Ducks. They would again turn the ball over on downs on 4th and 3 on Washington's 8-yard line in the 3rd quarter. Then towards the end of regulation the Ducks found themselves on Washington's 46-yard line on 3rd and 2. A First down and the game is over. 3rd down was a 1-yard loss and 4th was an incomplete pass. Two plays later Washington scored the go-ahead TD and was up by 3. Just for Oregon to drive down and with time expiring... miss a 43-yard field goal.
They outgained Washington 541 yards to 415. They just couldn't catch a break at crucial moments. That's not just tough luck, credit goes to Washington for making plays but it's also Oregon failing to make them. It's just not going to happen twice, especially with this game being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Oregon's going to have a stronger fan presence than Washington will in this one too as the more National CFB brand.
We touched on this earlier in the year, but we are very high on Dan Lanning as a coach. He led those elite Georgia Defenses, and you can have all the talent in the world, but to do what they did to teams, you need elite coaching as well. His Ducks defense has been flying around and has only gotten better as the years progressed. Oregon returned just 6 defensive starters from last year so there were things to work through. They brought in the 9th ranked recruiting class and 9th ranked portal class. Not to mention the talent they already had in the building. Comes as no surprise to see this team drastically improve throughout the year.
Washington was their first real test of the season and the defense struggled. Since then, they've allowed just 16 points per game and have done it against some quality offenses. They handled the USC offense for most of the game. USC would end up scoring 27 points, which by comparison is fine in its own right but 14 of those came in the 4th quarter after the Ducks took a commanding 36-14 lead. They dominated Oregon State last week, holding the Beavers to just 7 points. They also allowed 24 points to a solid Washington State offense but 8 of those 24 came on the 2nd to last play of the game. Oregon's defense is taking care of business.
While they play the best ball of the season, Washington's playing some of their worst. There's a ton of speculation on whether or not Michael Penix is hurt at the moment. Coach and player insist he's fine and he's been off the injury report but he's not his usual self. He's flagged as an injury prone guy as it is. Regardless, he's not playing championship caliber football even a little bit. His combined stat-line in his last 2 games: 31 of 61 for 366 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception. He's usually a very accurate passer. Even against Utah 3 weeks ago he only completed 57.1% of his throws. They aren't the worst numbers, but he's supposed to be among College Football's elite.
On the opposing side the Washington defense has been leaky all season allowing over 400 yards per game. USC had 515 yards and scored 42 against them. A Utah team with a QB that struggled to throw had 382 yards and scored 28. They did hold Oregon State to 20 which is solid, but they needed a game winning field goal with time expiring to beat Washington State last week. They played 2 Elite offense teams and they both destroyed the Huskies defense.
As a Heisman front-runner, we expect Bo-Nix to do it again. They've moved the ball consistently against every team this year. Going back, 480 against Oregon State but that was an early blowout, 603 vs ASU, 552 vs USC, 597 vs Cal, 390 against Utah but that games was over at halftime,541 vs Wazzu, and then 541 vs Washington. They rank 2nd in points and yards per game this year. They have the #1 passing offense and that's where Washington's struggled more defensively. The 265.2 passing yards they allowed per game ranks 120th out of 133 FBS programs and that Pac-12 conference isn't very strong.
Oregon's just the better team playing better football and their ascension as the year's gone on adds up. Dan Lanning is in his 2nd year and has his defense up to speed. They also hold a massive pass rushing edge over Washington. Will Stein is in his first season as offensive coordinator for Oregon and the offense looks more polished now. Bo Nix is having a Heisman campaign as it is but he must feel much more comfortable in this system. Washington on the other hand has played some of their worst football of late and their QB is a big part of it.
