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Gridiron Players Club (11/4/23)

CFB

(4 Picks)


12:00PM EST: South Carolina -15.5 (4 Units)


Massive talent disparity in this one. Jacksonville State just joined the FBS level this season. Sure they're 7-2 but that's playing against Conference USA teams. They've played 2 games against teams with winning records this year. Liberty, the top of C-USA and Coastal Carolina, a middle of the pack Sun Belt team. They lost 13-31 at Home against Liberty and 16-30 at Coastal. Now they face an SEC opponent that can legitimately compete with some of the top teams in nation. They're also doing it on the road.


Unless the Gamecocks are sleepwalking going into this game, Jacksonville State doesn't stand a chance. SC may be sitting in the bottom of the SEC but they still have SEC lineman and strong QB play in Spencer Rattler. SC was up 14-0 on Georgia before losing 24-14, they competed and lost to TX A&M 17-30, and lost a nail biter to Florida 39-41. Simply two different levels of programs. Jacksonville State is lucky to land a 3 star prospect while South Carolina is littered with them and 4 Stars.


Jacksonville State let up 28 or more 4 different times and a couple times to some awful offenses. As long as Shane Beamer has these boys ready to play this is a blowout. This is like a Superbowl for Jacksonville State but SC will rise to the occasion even if they come out a bit flat.


12:00PM EST: Kansas State +3.5 (3 Units)


This Kansas State team can play. They're 6-2 with a FG Loss @ Missouri and an 8 point loss at Oklahoma State. They run the football very well with RB's Giddens and Ward but QB Will Howard is 3rd on the team with 313 yards and a 5.8 YPC average. Howard also has the arm to take the top off a defense, there's 6 Kansas State receivers with a reception of 40 yards or longer this year. This Texas defense is stout but quality offenses have been able to score on them. Alabama scored 24 and that was before the Tide had a true offensive identity. Oklahoma put up 34 and even Houston scored 24. Kansas would have been a good test of the Longhorns but Daniels didn't play. We backed Texas as they annihilated BYU last week but they won't have that same advantage at the line of scrimmage.


QB Maalik Murphy is back under center for Texas. He was solid against an inferior BYU team, completing 16 of 25 passes for 170 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Texas ran wild for 184 yards, as expected. Kansas State boasts a respectable run defense though, limiting teams to 124.1 rushing yards per game (36th). This game won't be as easy as hand-offs and play-action for the inexperienced signal caller. The Texas defense isn't going to annihilate Kansas State like they did BYU either.


Murphy did turn the ball over twice last week. Throwing an interception and fumbling on the BYU 11. Texas scored 35 points in his first game but the defense had a lot to do with it. 1 of those touchdowns came on a punt return. Another TD came off a Slovis interception that set them up on the BYU 26, another Slovis Pick set up a TD drive on the BYU 8, and lastly a Slovis fumble that set up a TD drive on BYU's 39. Really wasn't a very strong showing offensively for Texas which makes sense with a first time starter. We backed Texas last week because of the talent disparity outside of the QB position, that advantage isn't there this week and the young QB is going to have to make some big time throws to beat Kansas State.



3:30PM EST: Maryland +8.5 (3 Units)


Maryland's better than their record shows and Penn State's a bit overrated. The Nittany Lions offense isn't all of what they make it out to be. QB Drew Allar is a good game manager but he isn't one of the top QB's in the nation. He's only thrown for more than 210 yards just once this year and it came back in week 1. Maryland's defense matches up very well against Penn State. They allow just 103.7 rushing yards per game (18th) and just 3 yards per carry (10th). Penn State had their ground game shut down against Ohio State and and they didn't find the end zone until there was just 30 seconds remaining in regulation.


Indiana did a decent job against them last week too, holding Penn to 132 yards rushing and their top backs combined for just 3.97 yards per carry. They had just 342 yards of total offense in that game and were tied up at 24 a piece with just 3 minutes left in the game. Penn State was also Home for that game, they'll be on the road today. Maryland should be more then capable of disrupting their offense.


MD was able to do it against Ohio State earlier this year. They had a 17-10 lead over the Buckeyes IN Ohio State in the 3rd quarter before eventually falling 37-17. Timely takeaways and the OSU passing attack finding some explosive plays towards the end of that game contributed to that. The Penn State passing attack is a shell of what the Buckeye's is however. This is also Maryland's biggest home game of the year so far. The crowd should be fired up.


Offensively it's tough sledding on Penn State's defense but Taulia Tagovaiola is a quality QB. He's been able to move the ball against every offense he's faced, including @ OSU. Chop Robinson is also hurt and Questionable coming into this game. The Edge rusher would be a massive loss to the Penn State front 7. Their pass rush goes as he goes and looks significantly different without him.


10:30PM EST: Arizona +2.5 (3 Units)

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