7PM EST: Toledo -9.5 (3 Units)
Toledo is just a much better football team than Bowling Green. BG has had flashes against the bottom of the barrel MAC teams that could lose to FCS programs but any actual competition and they've been smoked. BG's won 4 straight against the 7th, 10th, 11th, and 12th (last) ranked offenses in the conference. The two MAC teams they played with a winning record they lost by a combined score of 7-65. One of which was a 27-0 shutout against Miami (OH), a team Toledo beat 21-17 without trailing the entire game.
Toledo could very easily be sitting at 10-0 but they lost week 1 to Illinois 30-28. They took a 28-27 lead with 3 minutes to go after failing to convert a 2 point conversion and couldn't stop Illinois from driving down to field goal range. This is a very well coached football team with a ton of expereince. They brought back the majority of production from a good team last year and they're about to play game 11 this year. Their defense is allowing just 16.6 points per game over their last 5.
Bowling Green did upset Toledo last season which should keep the Rockets focued for this game. Little bit of revenge motivation doesn't hurt. They had won 8 of their last 9 going into that meeting too so it's not like the Falcons have their number. Just caught them last season. In 2021 Toledo won 49-17 and in 2020 38-3. They still have the same head coaches.