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NFL (5 Picks)
3:00PM EST: Chiefs/Ravens Under 44.5 (4 Units), Patrick Mahomes Under 245.4 Passing Yards (3 Units), Gus Edwards Anytime TD +140 (3 Units)
BAL is the #1 and KC is the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. KC ranks 4th in opponent passing yards per game and 18th in opponent rushing YPG. BAL ranks 5th in opponent passing YPG and are 13th in opponent rushing YPG. The Ravens have the #1 rushing offense in football and it's no secret they're going to run the ball. KC has also leaned heavily on their ground game and specifically RB Isiah Pacheco in recent weeks. Going back their last 3 games KC has averaged 138.7 rushing YPG. Pacheco himself ran for 97, 89, and 130. This game will be shortened with both teams looking to run the ball.
BAL also gets CB Marlon Humphrey back this week. It's just another addition to an already loaded defense. BAL ranks 1st in sacks per game and with them playing at Home there's going to be extra stress on the Chiefs pass protection up front. KC should live in the quick to intermediate passing game today limiting big chunk plays for Mahomes passing total. BAL has been one of the best in the NFL in explosive passing plays allowed as well.
Lamar stole the show and ran for both of Baltimore's rushing touchdowns last week but it's Gus Edwards that led this team with 13 rushing touchdowns this season. He's their goal-line back and has a nose for the endzone. He may have gotten one for us last week, but he injured his hand in the 3rd quarter during the middle of a blowout and was held out for precautionary purposes. He's good to go this week.
6:30PM EST: 49ers -7 (4 Units), Brock Purdy Over 275.5 Passing Yards (3 Units).
The Lions defense just isn't good enough. SF struggled a little bit last week when Deebo went down with an injury, but they pulled it together in the 2nd half. Deebo is good to go and was removed from the injury report by the end of this week. The Packers defense is just plain better than the Lions too. Detroit is the 23rd ranked scoring defense and is 22nd in yards allowed per game at 344.6. They've also let up a whopping 427 yards per game over their last 3. The Commanders finished the year dead last allowing 388.9 yards per game for reference. Those 3 games also came against TB, LAR, and MIN. They were also all played at Home with the Detroit faithful by their side. SF is either the best or 2nd best offense behind Baltimore this year and they won't have to worry about the crowd.
The one thing the Lions defense has done well is stop the run. They're 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game on the year. The Buccs still found some success running against them last week and they're the worst rushing team in the NFL. The 49ers might not run all over them but their ground games a totally different animal and they'll have some success. Either way Brock Purdy should see an increased workload through the air. Half of his passes are just an extension of the run game and getting the ball out to space for guys like Deebo. It's a high passing total for Purdy but Detroit ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game this season and has allowed an average of 345 passing yards per game over their last 3.
Offensively for SF it's a bad time to be banged up front. They're down their starting RG and their starting Center Frank Ragnow is dealing with an Ankle, Toe, Knee, and Back injury. Ragnow's going to suit up but he's not going to be at the top of his game. Jared Goff struggles under pressure, and nobody has been better than SF at putting pressure on the QB since they acquired Chase Young. Their interior is healthy and that's not always the case for SF. Arik Armstead, Javon Hargave, and Javon Kinlaw is a hell of an inside Trio to handle and it allows their edge rushers to get Home. This is also Detroit's first road game since December 30th. This is Dan Campbell's and the new look Lions first real test as a Unit too. SFs come up short the past few years but they're no stranger to this moment.