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Gridiron Player Club NFL 1-5 Units (9/22/24)


NFL


4 Picks.


1:00PM EST: LAC/PIT Under 35 (4 Units).


The Chargers offense is in a tough spot in Pittsburgh's Home Opener. The Steelers defense will be right in the mix for top defense this year and they've dominated both Atlanta and Denver on the road. They're supposed to dominate a rookie QB, but they shut down a good Falcons rushing attack and that's what the Chargers want to do. Through 2 games Justin Herbert's thrown for just 274 yards while the LA offense has run for 395. That formula won't change, especially on the road. The Raiders defense held LA to just 316 total yards and that was in LA. Chargers went into Carolina last week and won 26-3 with 349 yards of offense. That's a terrible Panthers defense. This will be LA's first true road test and their offense hasn't done a whole lot against much weaker defenses.


Offensively the Steelers offense has scored 28 points through 2 games with just 1 touchdown thus far. Like LA they want to run it all game, especially with Justin Fields at QB. The Chargers defense has allowed 13 points through 2 games this season. They have a ton of talent on that side of the ball and one of the brightest young defensive minds in the game calling plays. This should be a snooze fest with the punters getting plenty of limelight. Old School Football.


4:25PM EST: SF/LAR Under 44.5 (2 Units).


Lengthy injury report. SF is without CMC, Deebo, and Kittle's doubtful after not practicing all week. The Rams are without WR's Kupp and Nacua, but they also have 5 offensive linemen on the IR with 3 starters going down since the season began. SF scored 17 points last week and the Rams 10. These two are incredibly familiar with one another and it's tough to see many explosive plays throughout this game with all the firepower that's missing. Would go heavier but these are two of the best offensive minds in the game.


8:20PM EST: Falcons +3.5 (2 Units).


The Falcons stole a win last week in Philly, but they got back to their roots of running the football. Kansas City had an average run defense last year and has been through 2 games this year. It's also a lot easier to defend the run at Home when the opposing team can't really use a hard count. The Chiefs lost their top CB from last season, and they've been weaker on the back end because of it. Lamar threw for 273 yards against them Week 1 and Burrow 258 in Week 2. This Falcons passing attack will only improve as the season moves along. That game winning drive against Philly would have you think they've been smooth sailing all along. This is a good Chiefs defense but it's not the same as last years. They allowed 25 points last week and were a couple inches way from letting up 27 in Week 1.


Atlanta's defense is going to be one of the better units in the NFL this season. They were a top 5 scoring defense before throwing in the towel the final 2 weeks of last season and they've brought their key pieces back. They hired a defensive HC who's had a lot of success with much less talent. They struggled a bit with designed QB runs from Hurts last week and Fields week 1 but that's not Mahomes's game.


The Chiefs really deserved to lose to the Bengals last week. They had just 286 total yards of offense and went 1 for 8 on third downs. Mahomes threw for a career low 151 yards. Pacheco had a good day running the football, but he just hit the IR. Their RB depth isn't great, and CEH still isn't with the team. Pacheco has been a massive part of this offense, and his physical running helps keep KC ahead of the chains. It's a significant loss. Even KC's win over BAL was a couple inches away from going to OT. They're not exactly firing on all cylinders just yet, so we'll gladly take this FG and buy the Hook.


8:20PM EST: ATL/KC Under 46.5 (3 Units).


ATL had a top 5 scoring defense in 2023 up until they threw in the towel for their final 2 games of the season. They finished 2023 8th in passing yards allowed per game despite allowing 265+ in each of their last 2. They allowed 183 passing yards last week and 156 in week 1. Pat Mahomes and company's a whole different beast but they really struggled to move the ball through the air against the Bengals last week. Mahomes threw for a career low 151 yards. They also lost RB Isiah Pacheco to the IR and he's been a huge part of the Chiefs success the last couple years. Reid and Mahomes tend to find a way, but we expect some of that disfunction to carry over in their first road game of the year.


Atlanta's offense is a work in progress but they're a team built to run the football. They leaned on that rushing attack all game against Philly and they will against KC. The best way to defend Reid and Mahomes offense is to keep them off the field. The Falcons offense is a work in progress that'll improve week to week, but KC is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Falcons scored 10 points week 1 and 22 in Week 2. A last-minute miracle TD drive last week or that's only 15.