Gridiron Player Club NFL 1-5 Units (9/15/24)

NFL

5 Picks.

1:00PM EST: Ravens -8 (3 Units).

The Raiders hung around for a bit but still lost 22-10 to the Chargers despite the unimpressive outing from LA's offense. The Raiders offense is in for another rough day today. Schematically the Chargers and Ravens defense are very much the same. Jim Harbaugh’s DC came with him from Michigan, but he comes from his brother's coaching tree. LV rushed 22 times for just 71 yards (3.2 YPC). Baltimore let up 27 to KC in week 1 but their defense played pretty well against the defending champs. KC ran for just 72 yards on 20 carries. Xavier Worthy's first little gadget play accounted for 21 of those 72. Mahomes just made the plays only Mahomes can make a few too many times. Plays Gardner Minshew isn't capable of making.

Baltimore's offense looked great in its debut in year 2 under OC Todd Monken. Lamar's leaner and looking like his MVP winning self. They racked up 452 yards of total offense, 267 passing and 185 rushing. They were 2 inches away from a game tying TD to send it to Overtime. That's as tough an environment to go into as any in the NFL, especially in a season opener. Playing in their Home Opener today we like Baltimore to blow it open and cover the big number.

1:00PM EST: Lions -7 (3 Units).

Detroit had no business covering for us last week and looked dysfunctional most of that game. Then they got the ball in Overtime and their offense did what they did all last year, pounding the rock at will. They won and covered this number in both games against TB last year. Week 1 rust, not playing in the preseason, whatever it was this offense will lock in. TB has had a good defense under Todd Bowles over the years, but they're really banged up. They're down a starting DT, starting S, and their 3rd and 4th CB's. Their starting Nickle CB is questionable with an Ankle injury and starting RDE questionable with a Foot Injury. They traded starting CB Carlton Davis to these Lions in the off-season and lost their 2nd leading tackler LB Devin White in FA as well. Jared Goff threw for 277 and 340 yards in his 2 games against a much stronger TB secondary last year.

The Lions defense didn't look too great in Week 1 but they're adding in some new faces. This is a Unit that should improve throughout the season, health permitting. The Buccs lost longtime starting Center Ryan Jansen to retirement in the off-season. Their starting RT has also been ruled out for this game. The OL held up fine in pass protection against the Commanders at Home but now they go on the road. TB really struggled to run the ball in week 1. They ran for 112 yards on 30 carries (3.7 YPC), but their starting RB Rachaad White ran for just 31 on 15 carries. 15 of those yards came on 1 carry. Backup RB Bucky Irving accounted for 61 of those rushing yards with 31 coming on 1 play. They were pretty 1 dimensional all game. They have a new offensive coordinator this year and it's his first season calling plays in the NFL. Just his 2nd year calling plays in general. Expecting this Buccs offense to struggle on the road today.

1:00PM EST: Jets -4 (2 Units).

People overreacting to the NY Jets week 1 loss in SF. It wasn't their best showing and their run defense struggled but the biggest takeaway for them is that Aaron Rodgers looks good. The Jets either turned the ball over or punted within the first 3 plays of all but 1 of their first half drives against SF. It was the lowest recorded TOP for a Rodgers led offense in his career. There are some natural growing pains as the Jets start tying in all the new offensive pieces but it's not all bad. They get a much friendlier opponent in Tennessee this week that just somehow managed to lose to the Bears. Tennessee mustered just 244 yards of total offense, 104 passing and 140 rushing. We knew the Jets defense would struggle to stop the run against the SF rushing attack, but they haven't been as poor as people would like to believe over the years. They were 11th in yards allowed per attempt last year and 10th the year before that. TEN QB Will Levis is going to have to make some throws on an elite Jets passing defense. The Titans were an average scoring defense last year and lost some key pieces in the off-season as they brought in a new coaching staff. The Jets offense will be just fine. Aaron Rodgers looks like his old self.

8:20PM EST: Texans -6 (1 Unit), Under 45 (2 Units). The Bears and Caleb Williams had a miserable offensive debut at Home Week 1. They didn't score a TD and had just 148 yards of total offense, 64 yards passing and 84 yards rushing. Williams completed 14 of 29 passes and had a QBR of 55.7. Somehow they won that game 24-17. Keenan Allen and Rookie WR Rome Odunze are both questionable. They also lost a starting Guard to the IR. This is Caleb Williams first road game in an NFL uniform. They'll likely be better than they were in Week 1 because it's hard to be any worse but it's a tough spot for Chicago. The Texans had the 11th ranked scoring defense last season and played significantly Home. They brought in a ton of defensive talent in the off-season too, specifically up front. Defensive HC and DC in their 2nd year. Expectations are high in Houston and its prime time. That stadium will be rocking.

The Bears defense doesn't get enough credit for how they've played since the 2nd half of last season. They allowed 20 points or less in 7 of their last 8 regular season games last year and opened up 2024 holding Tennessee to 17 points despite no help from their offense. The Texans offense is a bit too potent to be stopped completely but we do like them to give Houston enough trouble this game doesn't end up over 45 points.