NFL
2 Picks.
8:15PM: Buccs +2.5 (2 Units), Under 43.5 (4 Units). Since Todd Bowles took over this Buccs defense they've excelled in the Red Zone. They ranked 3rd last year allowing a TD on just 45% of Red Zone possessions and are at 47.06% this year. The Falcons defense was right behind them at 45.28% in 2023 and are right in front of them at 46.67% this year. Atlanta's offense ranks 29th so far this season scoring touchdowns on just 40% of redzone possession. The new QB and Offensive System play a part with those struggles but injuries to the OL also have a lot to do with it.
They lost both their starting Center and Tackle to injuries against the Chiefs. They've played 6.5 quarters of football since then and their offense has 5 field goals to show for it. They were moving the ball well against KC before those 2 went down. The Chiefs proceeded to dial up pressure for much of the 2nd half and Atlanta struggled to pick it up. Atlanta does get their Tackle back but their Center's on the IR and he's the one making protection calls. Without him the Falcons likely struggle against the blitz happy Buccs. TB ranked 3rd blitzing 40.1% of drop backs last year and are 3rd again this year. Kirk was never a mobile QB but since the Achilles injury he's practically a statue back there. His lack of mobility has led to turnovers via errant throws and he’s fortunate not to have more. He’s fumbled the ball 4 times, but Atlanta’s recovered all 4.
Atlanta will look to establish the ground game. They had one of the best rushing offenses in football last year but have been a little slow out of the gate. They're 10th in YPC but 22nd in rushing yards per game. Game script and the OL injuries have influenced those numbers, but they want to run the football and will as long as their able.
The Atlanta defense was good last year and that plays carried over into 2024. Despite Atlanta ranking 31st in Time of Possession and 17th in giveaways, they're allowing just a tick over 21 PPG. If they can get some help form their offense, they'll be one of the top scoring defenses in the NFL once again. They’re 13th in passing yards allowed per game and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. They do rank 8th in opponent yards per carry though. They're 31st allowing 73.44% of passes to be completed. Baker's completion % is a career high 70.5% this season. The Falcons defense will present some challengers for TB but even if they're forced to throw, they can remain efficient and most importantly keep this clock ticking.
The Falcons didn’t score a single offensive TD in last week’s 26-24 win over New Orleans. A muffed punt for a TD and deflected pass went for a pick 6 to give Atlanta 14. Hard to win games in the NFL when your offense doesn't score touchdowns and Tampa's as good as any preventing them. The Buccs went into Detroit in their only road game this year and held them to just 1 touchdown on 7 Red Zone trips.
