NFL
3 Picks.
8:15PM: KC Chiefs -9 (3 Units), TB/KC Under 46 (3 Units), Parlay KC -9 & U46 (1 Unit).
Brutal spot for a banged-up Tampa Bay offense without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Rookie WR Jalen McMillan and Veteran WR Sterling Shephard are both less than 100% nursing hamstring injuries and officially listed as questionable for tonight as well. The Chiefs defense ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed per carry and 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game. The only team that had an ounce of consistent rushing success against KC was Baltimore in Week 1. Derrick Henry was limited to just 3.5 YPC but Lamar ran for 122 yards on 16 attempts. KC went into SF 2 weeks back and held them to 4.2 YPC so they've been tested. Tampa's run game has been good, and they'll go to it, but they won't have too much success. Baker's going to have to make throws, and they just don't have the horses for it.
The Chiefs offense this season has been mediocre per Andy Reid's standard. They're still a respectable 11th in both points and yards per game but Mahomes has more interceptions thrown (9) than touchdown passes (8). The aerial attack is sure to improve with the recently acquired DeAndre Hopkins but that takes time and he's 32 years old with his best ball behind him. Their offensive line play just isn't great. They're strong in the interior but their Tackles have struggled, and it's shortened up their passing game. KC ranks 29th in rushing yards per carry but are still 9th in rush rate and 14th in rushing yards per game
Todd Bowles's defense has dealt with a slew of injuries, and it's struggled because of it. They're 27th in points allowed per game and 30th in yards. They ranked 5th and 20th in those same categories last year. Elite Red Zone defense has been his calling card since joining TB in 2019, ranking inside the Top 6 in Red Zone TD % allowed in 3 of his 5 full seasons. They also finished 11th in another. So far this year they're ranked 15th. That'll improve with their health and they're as close to full strength as they've been all season and will likely be the rest of the way. KCs also struggled in this area offensively, ranking 24th in Red Zone TD %. Chiefs likely moves the ball fine but TB's ability to tighten up in the Red Zone should help keep a lid on this thing.
Just don't see Tampa Bay's offense having enough success on the road at Arrowhead Stadium against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They’ll be forced to run more with the banged up WR room and that’ll help shorten this game up. Likely heavy rain at points throughout this game, making offense and kicking even more difficult.
