NFL
4 Picks.
8:20PM EST: Chiefs -2.5 (2 Units).
8:20PM EST: BAL/KC Under 47 (2 Units).
This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game that saw KC come away with a 17-10 win in Baltimore. The Ravens were 1st and KC 2nd in scoring defense a season ago. Both teams have lost some talent, but it was the Ravens who were hit hardest. They lost 15 players in FA, including 2 starting offensive lineman. They also traded their starting RT Morgan Moses to the Jets so they're welcoming 3 new starters along their offensive line. The Chiefs were 2nd behind Baltimore in total sacks last year with 57. They return 55 of those sacks for this year. They recorded 4 sacks in that AFC Championship game against BAL as well. KC DC Steve Spagnuolo dialed up blitzes on 43.5% of Lamar's drop backs and he really struggled with it. Spagnuolo's one of the best Defensive Coordinators of all time. He's won 4 Super Bowls as a DC, 1 with the Giants and 3 with KC.
Offensively the Chiefs are poised for a stronger year in 2024. They return all key pieces but added Marquise Brown via trade and drafted speedy WR Xavier Worthy out of Texas 28th overall. Brown has been ruled out for this game which will limit some of their explosive playmaking ability. The Ravens held teams under 200 yards passing per game in 2023 and that secondary is fully intact for 2024. They also signed former first team All-Pro safety Eddie Jackson and drafted one of the top CBs in the draft in Clemson's Nate Wiggins.
Lead RB Isiah Pacheco had a very strong year for the Chiefs in 2023 and Baltimore just lost 2 of their best pieces along the front 7, LB Patrick Queen and Edge Jadeveon Clowney. Queen was their 2nd leading tackler and Clowney was 2nd on the team with 9.5 sacks. Clowney is also a very strong run stuffer. Baltimore's defense was much weaker against the run in 2023, ranking 12th in rushing yards allowed per game and 20th in rushing yards per attempt. Pacheco should see his fill of carries in this game. He had 24 against Baltimore last year. Fully expect Baltimore to lean on its run game too. They signed RB Derrick Henry to shoulder a workload and Lamar's the best rushing QB in the NFL. It's also just a bad idea to drop Lamar Back frequently against this Chiefs pass rush with 3 new starting offensive linemen, especially playing at Arrowhead Stadium. 8:20PM EST: (KC) Xavier Worthy Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (1 Unit).
With fellow speedster Marquise Brown ruled out for tonight this leaves the Rookie WR as the Chiefs primary deep threat. HC Andy Reid will have some deep shots drawn up for Worthy specifically but now he'll see increased snaps and opportunities with Brown sidelined.
8:20PM EST: (BAL) Justice Hill Over 25.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (1 Unit).
Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell is out which leaves Hill as Derrick Henry's primary backup. Hill's in his 5th year with BAL and played well in limited action for them last year, averaging 4.6 YPC and 7.4 YPR. Henry isn't much of a receiving back and Hill has the familiarity with Lamar and OC Todd Monken's system. It's also the first week of the season and there's no reason to overwork Derrick Henry and break your new toy. The Ravens have long shared the wealth at the RB position under Harbaugh. Hill averaged 8.7 touches per game in games Mitchell didn't play in last year and had at least 7 in all but one.