Gridiron Player Club NFL 1-2 Units (9/30/24)

NFL

4 Picks.

7:30PM: Dolphins -2.5 (2 Units), Under 37.5 (2 Units).

Miami's sitting at 1-2 with the Titans and Patriots on tap before they get Tua back. These next 2 games will tell you a lot about Miami and we think they'll deliver. Going back the Titans have allowed 30, 24, and 24 points. Week 1 against Chicago wasn't the defense's fault, but TEN QB Will Levis has made a costly mistake in each and every game so far this season. It was the Packers backup QB Malik Willis who led the way as Green Bay dropped 30 on the Titans in Tennessee last week.

Miami's making a QB change of their own, going with Tyler Huntley instead of Skylar Thompson this week. Like Green Bay's Willis, Huntley can run. It's a copycat league and MIA HC Mike McDaniels and GB HC Matt LaFleur come from the same coaching tree, going way back to Washington. You can expect plenty of QB designed runs and RPO's with Huntley in. He's not an elite passer but his legs will allow Miami's speed some 1 on 1 opportunities. Having to account for the QB as a runner changes the numbers game in the box. Tennessee's likely without one of the best interior DL in Football as Jeffrey Simmons is doubtful. Miami led the league in YPC last year. With a running QB in we like McDaniels to scheme up some rushing success against a Titans defense that's ranked 18th allowing 4.5 YPC. That's also with Jeffrey Simmons playing in each of their first 3 games.

Miami's overall scoring defense hasn't been good under HC Mike McDaniel but it all changes at Home. In 2022, his first season, Miami had the 24th ranked scoring defense but they ranked 2nd allowing just 15.5 PPG at Home. Last year they ranked 22nd overall, but 7th at Home at 17.3 PPG. So far this season they gave up 31 at Home to Buffalo but that was the game Tua got hurt. He threw 3 picks including a pick 6. Buffalo had just 247 yards of total offense. In Week 1 at Home they allowed 17 points to Jacksonville but a big 40 yard PI penalty set them up with an easy score. Jacksonville only had 267 yards of total offense. Even last week in Seattle they hung tough despite next to no help from their offense. They don't lack talent and they've been close to putting together a dominant 60 minutes.

It's just nut up or shut up time for the Miami defense against a Titans offense that's failed to score more than 17 points this year. Playoff hopes get real slim if you fall to 1-3 and it's on the healthy defense to get the job done. With Huntley in at QB we trust their offense will do enough and allow them to play complimentary football tonight.

8:15PM EST: Lions -4 (2 Units), Over 46.5 (2 Units).

Detroit's 4th in total yards per game but just 16th in points per game. They averaged over 27 PPG last season and have had some issues scoring touchdowns this year. They were 2nd in RedZone TD scoring % last year and it’s a matter of when, not if they break through. Playing at Home where they averaged 29.9 PPG last year is the place to do it. It’s not like Detroit lost any key players from last year’s squad and Ben Johnson’s still calling plays.

Seattle went defense when they hired HC Mike Macdonald. We believe he's one of the best defensive coaches in the game, but you don't slap together an elite defense overnight. They've played well so far in 2024, but the schedule doesn't get much easier than Miami without Tua at Home, @ New England, and at Home against Denver in Bo Nix's NFL debut. Seattle ranked 24th in scoring defense and 30th in yards allowed per game last season. Macdonald's sure to improve on those number but they're without some major players along their Front 7 tonight.

They come into this game without DE Leonard Williams, 16th overall pick DT Byron Murphy, OLB's Uchenna Nwosu, and Boye Mafe. LB Jerome Baker's also questionable with a Hamstring injury after logging just 1 limited practice on Saturday. They're without their ideal Nickel Package defensive line. They gave up 185 yards rushing on 36 carries (5.1 YPC) in their only road game this year at New England and Detroit ranks 4th averaging 163 rushing yards per game. It's a lot of firepower missing at the point of attack against one of the best offensive lines in Football.

Defensively the Lions were mediocre last season and don't appear much improved. They allowed 20 points to both the Rams and Buccs but limited Arizona to 13. Cardinals couldn't score on the Commanders defense at Home yesterday so that's not saying a whole lot. The Rams were deep into their OL depth chart, and they stilled moved the ball up and down the field. FA addition Marcus Davenport's on the IR. It was important for Detroit to get a strong edge player opposite Hutchinson but that hasn't happened. Starting safety Brian Branch is also doubtful and he's become one of Detroit's best defensive playmakers both against the run and pass. Seattle doesn't lack offensive firepower and it's the one consistency from the previous coaching regime. They also get RB Kenneth Walker back for this game. They've scored 23 or more in each of their first 3 games and should help drive this total over tonight.