Gridiron Player Club NFL 1-2 Units (9/23/24)

NFL

4 Picks.

7:30PM EST: Jaguars +5 (2 Units), Under 46.5 (1 Units).

Jacksonville's 0-2 with their offense off to a slow start. They have 1 turnover on the year, and it was a costly one. Travis Etienne fumbled on the 3-yard line going in to score while Jacksonville was up 17-3 on Miami. The ensuing Dolphins play was an 80-yard TD to Tyreek Hill. They went on to lose that game 17-20 in Miami. Their defense has held up fine, allowing 20 and 18 points in their first 2 games despite their offensive woes. They ranked 9th in rushing yards allowed per game last season and are 9th again in 2024. They're also 6th in rushing yards allowed per carry at 3.8. Dating back to last year, much of Buffalo's offensive success stems from its ground game, now more so than ever with Diggs in Houston.

Josh Allen only has 371 yards passing on the year. With how Buffalo's first couple games have played out he really hasn't had to do too much. They ran the ball well against Arizona and their defense dominated Miami. They've scored 34 and 31 points so far this season, but it's been a little flukey. Defensive takeaways and a turnover on downs setting them up inside their opponent’s territory has led to 24 total points. Their defense also has a pick 6. That's a testament to Buffalo's defense but those numbers simply won't hold up. Jacksonville's done a good job protecting the ball with just the 1 turnover this year. If the Jacksonville offense doesn't set their defense back, the Bills offense should have some issues. Jacksonville went into Miami last year and won 25-20, limiting them to just 23 yards rushing.

The Jaguars offense will have their work cut out for them but we like them to have some success running the football. Buffalo ranked 29th in rushing yards allowed per carry last year (4.7) and are 16th through 2 games this year (4.5). The injury to ILB Terrell Bernard last week is going to sting. They had already lost stud LB Matt Milano for the year before the season began. They also lost Milano for the year in their week 6 loss to these Jaguars last year and that's when Bernard stepped up. He had a breakout year, leading Buffalo in tackles after recording just 22 in his rookie season. Without him Buffalo's not just missing quality LB play but their leader and defensive signal caller. He had green dot honors. The interior of that Buffalo defense is going to take a significant hit without him and Jacksonville ran for 196 on Buffalo last season.

8:15PM: Commanders +7.5 (2 Units), Over 46 (1 Unit).

This Commanders defense is off to a rough start under HC Dan Quinn. They ranked dead last in almost every major category last year and all signs point to another disappointing season. They're sure to improve under Quinn but there's an overall lack of talent to work with. They gave up 37 points to the Buccs in week 1 and 18 points to the Giants in Week 2. If the Giants had a healthy kicker that's at least 21 and likely more than that. Burrow went into KC last week and threw for 258 and now they're at Home with an 0-2 record. Fully expect the Bengals offense to have success throughout this game, especially with Tee Higgins returning. Washington is also without DE Clelin Ferrell, who recorded a sack in each of the Commanders first 2 games.

We also like Washington's offense here. While the Commanders defense doesn't have much to work with, they have talent on offense. Their ground game should really help open things up. The Bengals ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in yards per carry last season. In 2024 they're 29th in rushing yards per game and 18th in yards per carry. Their first 2 games were against New England and Kansas City. Neither of them have a running QB. Jayden Daniels is 2nd to only Lamar Jackson but he’s probably a better passer. He's averaging 5.1 YPC while starting RB Brian Robinson's averaging 6. The Commanders are 3rd, averaging 176.5 rushing yards per game this year. The Bengals will be without both of their starting defensive tackles after both got injured last week. Their starting SS Vonn Bell is also questionable and wasn't able to practice Friday or Saturday. He's + run support and at the very least not 100%. The Commanders offense should hang around in this one.