NFL
4 Picks.
8:15PM EST: MIA -2.5 (2 Units), BUF/MIA Under 49 (2 Units), Parlay MIA -2.5 & Under 49 (1 Unit).
Miami's coming off a 20-17 comeback win over Jacksonville after trailing 14-0. Their defense shut out the Jags in the 2nd half. The Dolphins ranked 22nd in scoring defense last season and a lot of that had to do with injuries. Regardless they played very well at Home, holding opponents to 17.3 PPG at Hard Rock stadium, the 7th best mark in the NFL. They also led the league in rushing yards allowed per game at Home last year. They held Jacksonville to 267 total yards and limited them to 2/10 on 3rd down. Trevor Lawrence went 12/21 with 162 yards passing. A big 40-yard Pass Interference penalty in the endzone set up 1 of Jacksonville's 2 Touchdowns.
The Bills offense just scored 34 on Arizona at Home in week 1 but that will be one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Arizona ranked 31st in scoring defense last season. Outside of Josh Allen the Bills ground game struggled, rushing for 91 yards on 25 carries. With Stefon Diggs in Houston this Bills passing offense is going to take a hit. Allen went an efficient 18/23 for 232 yards and 2 TDs against Arizona but this Miami secondary is one of the best in football. Buffalo drafted WR Keon Coleman 33rd overall to be their number 1 WR but that's going to take some time. As far as head-to-head matchups go, the Miami defense has Buffalo beat across the board. Miami will have the luxury of loading the box to help stop the run. Josh Allen's going to have to make plays with his legs in this game and he's just as likely to make the big play as he is to make the big turnover. Playing on the road for the first time on a short week, the new look WR room dysfunction should be on full display.
The Bills defense gave up 20 points to Arizona last week on 270 yards. Kyler Murray's scrambling ability really gave them trouble but that's not something they'll have to worry about against Miami. It's worth noting Kyler Murray missed a wide-open Marvin Harrison for a game winning TD against Buffalo due to a busted coverage. Buffalo held starting RB James Conner to just 50 yards on 16 carries (3.1 YPC). 20 of those also came on 1 run. Expect Miami to have more success running the football, even with their injuries at RB. Buffalo doesn't have great Safety play and that's going to be an issue with Miami's overall speed. They'll have to play more coverage and Buffalo's without star LB Matt Milano after he tore his biceps a month ago. He's the heart and soul of that defense and leader on the interior. Buffalo's also without their starting Nickle Corner and a couple depth pieces along their DL.
It's a divisional game on a short week. It's also the first short week of the season so guys are feeling it a little extra from Sunday. TNF Unders hit nearly 70% last season and each of the last 3 BUF/MIA meetings in Miami have gone Under the total.
8:15PM EST: Josh Allen Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (1 Unit).
Allen's going to have to make plays with his legs if Buffalo wants to win this game. Their lack of weapons at the WR position against an elite Dolphins secondary will force him to tuck and run when there's nobody to throw to. Miami will also have the luxury of loading the box, making it tough on BUF RB James Cook. Buffalo will use some designed QB runs just to keep Miami honest. Allen's gone over this rushing total in 4 of his last 5 regular season games vs Miami. The exception being a 48-20 blowout win over MIA which just won't happen tonight.