Gridiron Player Club NFL 1-2 Units (10/3/24)

NFL

1 Pick.

8:15PM EST: Buccs +2.5 (2 Units).

Since Todd Bowles took over this Buccs defense they've excelled in the Red Zone. They ranked 3rd last year allowing a TD on just 45% of Red Zone possessions and are at 47.06% this year. Atlanta's offense ranks 29th so far this season scoring touchdowns on just 40% of redzone possession. The new QB and Offensive System play a part with those struggles but injuries to the OL also have a lot to do with it.

They lost both their starting Center and Tackle to injuries against the Chiefs. They've played 6.5 quarters of football since then and their offense has 5 field goals to show for it. They were moving the ball well against KC before those 2 went down. The Chiefs proceeded to dial up pressure for much of the 2nd half and Atlanta struggled to pick it up. Atlanta does get their Tackle back but their Center's on the IR and he's the one making protection calls. Without him the Falcons likely struggle against the blitz happy Buccs. TB ranked 3rd blitzing 40.1% of drop backs last year and are 3rd again this year. Kirk was never a mobile QB but since the Achilles injury he's practically a statue back there. His lack of mobility has led to turnovers via errant throws and he’s fortunate not to have more. He’s fumbled the ball 4 times, but Atlanta’s recovered all 4.

The Falcons are stout defensively but they're 31st in opponent completion %. Bakers sporting a career high 70.5% completion rate so far this season. The Buccs offense should remain efficient enough to keep the chains moving and score some points. Falcons turnovers have led to points in 3 of Atlanta's 4 games this year as well.

The Falcons didn’t score a single offensive TD in last week’s 26-24 win over New Orleans. A muffed punt for a TD and deflected pass went for a pick 6 to give Atlanta 14. Hard to win games in the NFL when your offense doesn't score touchdowns and Tampa's as good as any preventing them. The Buccs went into Detroit in their only road game this year and held them to just 1 touchdown on 7 Red Zone trips.