Gridiron Player Club NCAAF 4-5 Units (1/1/25)

NCAAF

3 Picks (11 Units)

1PM EST: Texas vs ASU Under 51.5 (4 Units).

Both offenses operate through the ground game. For every elite offensive performance the Longhorns have had over the last 8 weeks, there's been an equally disappointing one. This isn't the same Texas offense as last year that saw 6 skill players drafted. They're plenty talented of course but without a complimentary ground game, the passing attack has really struggled. On the other side ASU has the 11th highest rushing rate in the country. Both of these defenses excel against the run though. Texas is 8th in rushing yards allowed per carry and 9th in rushing yards allowed per game. ASU is 32nd (3.8 YPC) and 22nd in those same categories. They rank 38th and 45th in rushing yards per carry offensively. With quality run defense we expect the lid to stay on in this game and the explosives to stay at a minimum.

5PM EST: Ohio State -2.5 (4 Units).

Yes, Oregon beat Ohio State earlier this year but that was in Eugene. The Buckeyes offense had no issue moving the ball, putting up 467 yards of total offense. Their number 1 defense struggled though, allowing 496 yards. OSU turned it over twice to Oregon's 0, and they were penalized 8 times for 70 yards compared to Oregon's 3/25. Despite that the game finished 32-21. Oregon isn't going to have the Home Field advantage this time around.

Oregon just isn't good enough against the run and that was on full display as Penn State averaged 8.3 YPC against them in the Big 10 Championship game. Like this one, that was a neutral site game. Oregon's only played 3 quality teams all year and they all made the playoffs. Boise State scored 34 at Oregon, Ohio State 31 at Oregon, and then Penn State scored 37 on a neutral field. We don't buy this as some truly elite defense. We are buying the Buckeyes defense though. They struggled to make tackles 1 on 1 in the open field and get to QB Dillon Gabriel. It's a neutral site but they'll be enough Buckeye fans there to make a difference on big 3rd downs. OSU is 2nd in the nation in Sack %. Oregon doesn't give up many sacks, but the Buckeyes front will have a better chance at getting pressure in this one. It's a lot easier to play defense when the QB can't hold the ball forever. Gabriel wasn't sacked once despite 34 pass attempts in the first meeting.

8:45PM EST: Georgia -1 (3 Units).

Georgia let it ride in the SEC Championship game with backup QB Gunner Stockton. They didn't change the offensive gameplan one bit outside of adding in designed QB runs. They took shots down the field and didn't try and protect him at all. They have all the confidence in the world in this kid and he's more than familiar with this offense. They also have the luxury of drawing up plays just for Stockton. Offense that Notre Dame has no tape to prepare with. The Bulldogs moved the ball much better in the 2nd half with Stockton than they did in the first with Beck. It's his running ability that really helps open things up. Georgia's 82nd in rushing yards per carry, which is unheard of for any Georgia team, but especially a Kirby Smart one. Stockton forces the defense to account for him in the ground game, but he can still push the ball down the field. It changes absolutely everything.

Georgia has all the big game experience and one of the greatest coaches in College Football history. Notre Dame excels at choking when it matters most, and the biggest game Marcus Freeman's ever coached was against Indiana on the 20th. The Fighting Irish haven't been real championship contenders in over 30 years, and we'll believe it when we see it.