Gridiron Player Club NCAAF 1-5 Units (9/6/25)

NCAAF

4 Picks (14 Units).

12PM: Iowa +3.5 (3 Units).

Big time rivalry game that Iowa's either won outright or lost by less than 3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Iowa State blowing out South Dakota in their Home opener last week doesn't mean very much. They beat KSU in their season opener, but it was ugly. That's a KSU team that nearly lost to North Dakota at Home last week. KSU's front 7 dominated Iowa State's offensive line for most of that game. Iowa's a defensive powerhouse under HC Kirk Ferentz. You have to go back to 2015 for the last time Iowa's allowed more than 20 points per game (20.8). They're routinely inside the top 10 in scoring defense and it all starts up front. It's a veteran defense that features 8 seniors and 3 juniors. This is a program that develops and reloads on the defensive side of the ball as well as any. It should be a closely contested game.

12PM: Baylor +3 (3 Units).

SMU had an incredible first year in the ACC but we're just not buying into this program. They do have 6 starters back on offense but return just 2 on defense. The SMU defense has been good each of the last two seasons, but those guys are gone. SMU had the 82nd ranked recruiting class in 2022, 72nd in 2023, and 106th in 2024. Their transfer portal class ranked 42nd this past year. This isn't an elite program that just reloads with talent. They do have plenty of talent on offense, but we like Baylor to keep pace. Baylor had the 18th ranked scoring offense last year and brought back 8 starters. QB, RB, 2 WR's, and 4 of 5 offensive lineman return. That was in Jake Spavital's first year as offensive coordinator. This offense is set to improve, and SMU's defense is set to take a step back.

3:30PM: Missouri -5.5 (5 Units).

Kansas is 2-0 with wins over Fresno State and Wagner. Kansas brought back just 6 starters from last year and has yet to be tested. This is their first real test, and it comes on the road at Mizzu in a brutal spot. Missouri went through a little makeover on offense but they have an offensive head coach who's had plenty of success. Kansas had the 79th ranked scoring defense last season and allowed nearly 30 points per game on the road. Mizzu's offense should be just fine at Home today. Their defense should really be the deciding factor. They had one of the best defenses in the SEC last year, ranking 26th in points allowed per game. They were even better at Home, allowing just 18.2 points per game. It's a Missouri defense that brought back 8 starters from last year. That was also Corey Batoon's first season as defensive coordinator. This could get real ugly if Mizzu jumps out to an early lead.

4:15PM: USF/FL Over 56.5 (3 Units).

USF had a nice win over Boise week 1 but there was plenty not to like in that game on their end. Their defense gave up plenty of yards and chunk plays, Boise just failed to capitalize. Florida had a tune-up game against LIU week 1 so this is their first meaningful game. That, on top of an in-state meeting, Florida won't overlook this spot. They have one of the best dual-threat QB's in the Country in DJ Lagway. With USF on the road, we expect that defense to struggle. It's hard to see Florida running into the same redzone issues as Boise State did. Now defensively, Florida's struggled in years past. USF might not have a ton of success on a drive-to-drive basis but they play with tempo. Very quick 3 and outs help us just as much by deploying a tired USF defense. USF HC Alex Golesh is as capable as any offensive mind and QB Byrum Brown can turn something out of nothing. The volume should be there, especially with game script getting away from USF.