NCAAF
1 Pick (5 Units).
8:00PM EST: UNLV +4.5 (5 Units).
These two met earlier this season with Boise winning 29-24. It was far from pretty as Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty was held to a season low 3.9 YPC. What ultimately decided the game was turnovers. Boise didn't turn it over and UNLV's lone giveaway set up a quick and easy score for the Broncos. Another highly competitive and closely contested game is what we expect here.
Both teams feature plenty of offensive firepower, ranking 4th and 9th in points per game. The defensive matchup leans UNLV. The Rebels defensive struggles have come against elite passing teams but that isn't Boise. UNLV's 14th in rushing yards allowed per game and 15th in rushing yards allowed per carry. Boise State QB Maddux Mansen is able to do enough with one of the best RB seasons of all time behind him, but he isn't a great passer. He completed just 54.5% of his passes against UNLV and has 4 other games with a completion % worse than that. Boise's defense grades out as one of the worst tackling teams in the Nation. UNLV's littered with playmakers and they hurt you by spreading the ball around.
The pressure's also on Boise in this spot. They'll settle in regardless, but they've been the one projected to represent the Group of 5 all season. They're the team that nearly upset the number 1 team in the Country. And they're the team with the Heisman candidate RB that people want to see in the Playoffs. A loss here and all that disappears. UNLV's a team playing with House money after their starting QB decided to sit out after 3 games.
UNLV HC Barry Odom's done a tremendous job turning this program around. They went and lost to Boise in the Mountain West Championship last year. Then Boise got him again during the regular season. He's a damn good football coach that'll be tough to get 3 straight on.
