Gridiron Player Club NCAAF 1-5 Units (11/2/24)

NCAAF

4 Picks.

12PM EST: Penn State +3 (5 Units).

Games are won and lost in the trenches and OSU's OL is banged up and their DL just isn't their usual dominant selves. The OL was solid prior to losing their starting LT for the season against Oregon. The backup LT really struggled against Nebraska last week and it nuked the entire offense as they scored just 21 points. They're bumping their starting LG to LT for this one, where he's taken just 4 career snaps. Likely upgrades them some at LT but the strength of Penn State's elite defensive line is along the interior. OSU rushed 31 times for 64 yards (2.1 YPC) against Nebraska last week and Penn State's right behind Nebraska at 6th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Ohio State was also playing at Home last week. Going into Penn State with a first time LT is a tall order.

Offensively all eyes or on Drew Allar's health but backup QB Beau Pribula adds a rushing element that he doesn't have. Regardless of if it's one or the other, or even both, we like Penn State's offense to find success. Penn State has one of the strongest offensive lines in the Country, leading the way for a team average of 5.1 YPC and 197 rushing yards per game. They've also allowed just 7 total sacks in 7 games. That's one area the Buckeyes historically excel in but they didn't register a single sack on the road against Oregon. They were also consistently gashed on the ground as the Ducks ran for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns on 31 carries (5.0 YPC). QB Dillon Gabriel added 341 yards and a couple scores through the air. OSU will blitz quite a bit, but Penn State's offense uses a ton of pre-snap motion that disrupts defensive timing. They're also at Home and don't have to silent count it like OSU will.

12PM EST: Minnesota -2.5 (3 Units).

Just don't believe Illinois is as good as their 6-2 record suggests. They can hang their hat on beating Nebraska and Michigan, but they were boat raced by Oregon and should have been against Penn State. This is the same defense that gave up 536 yards of offense to a 1-6 Purdue team just a few games back. P.J. Fleck's Gophers are known for running the football, but they've aired it out with success of late. MIN starting QB Max Brosmer's completed 69.5% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions so far this season. Part of that's because they haven't been great rushing the football, but Illinois ranks 94th allowing 4.8 YPC. Illinois can't run the ball either, but Minnesota defends it well allowing less than 4 YPC. The Illini also rank 103rd in opponent completion % so Brosmer should remain highly efficient and help keep Minnesota ahead of the chains.

3:30PM EST: Michigan +15 (3 Units).

Oregon's new to the Big 10 and despite playing 5 conference games, they really haven't seen much of their physical pro style teams. Purdue and Illinois aren't any good and UCLA was also with Oregon in the Pac-12 last year. Oregon went on the road to face MSU, the atypical Big 10 style and that was a lower scoring 31-10 Win. They played Ohio State at Home and gave up 467 yards, 326 passing and 141 rushing. They also struggled against Boise State’s downhill rushing attack, winning 37-34 on a game winning kick.

Michigan's the most physical downhill team that they'll face this year, and we have that presenting issues for the Ducks. The Wolverines aren't an elite bunch but they're 6-1 at Home allowing a respectable 20.7 Points and 323.3 Yards per game. The loss came against Texas, but they've also beaten a talented USC offense at Home. This will be the first big road game for the Ducks. Their 3 road games have come against (4-4) Oregon State, (2-5) UCLA, and (1-6) Purdue. All 3 venues combined wouldn't touch Ann Arbors atmosphere, especially against the #1 team in the Country. QB Dillon Gabriel transferred in this year and has thrown 5 picks in 5 conference games. This will be the first time they really have issues setting up protection and communicating at the LOS and Michigan DC Wink Martindale loves to bring pressure.

Just a few too many points. Michigan is going to show up and compete and their style of play really shortens games. Oregon's offense should face issues on the road and if Gabriel's turnover woes continue the Wolverines could catch some easy points.

7:30PM EST: Washington +2.5 (4 Units).

USC is 0-3 on the road with losses at Maryland, Minnesota, and Michigan. Washington is 4-0 at Home and has allowed just 34 total points in those 4 games. Their game against WSU was a neutral site and they allowed 24. Washington once again shot themselves in the foot last week against Indiana and the mistakes piled up. They've been much cleaner and efficient when playing at Home, committing 5.7 penalties per game compared to 8.3 on the road. They've outgained every team that they've played and are 4-4. The Huskies have always had one of the better Home Field advantages in the Nation and they haven't played at Home in just shy of a Month. Going to get a rowdy crowd when facing their former Conference powerhouse. Washington's also 5-3 against USC straight up in their last 8.