NCAAF
5 Picks.
4:00PM EST: RU/NEB Under 39.5 (2 Units).
Nebraska's 4-1 with a tough overtime loss to Illinois. In their 4 wins they've held each of their opponents to 10 points or less. Rutgers scored 21 on a good Washington defense at Home last night but was held under 300 yards. They were also gifted 7 points after a blocked FG at the end of the first half was negated by a player coming onto the field to celebrate before the play was ruled dead. Rutgers has 175 rushing attempts to 96 passing. They will run the football. Nebraska ranked 7th in rushing yards allowed per carry at 3 last season and are 6th so far this season at 2.5. Rutgers starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis is not a great passer. He completed 14 of 24 passes against Washington for just 115 yards. Rutgers does play quality defense, allowing no more than 23 points in a game this season. They were 32nd last year allowing 22.8 PPG to FBS opponents. Weather will also play a factor in this one as there's near 20 MPH winds throughout. Going to make throwing it even tougher. This is poised for your typical ugly Big 10 snooze fest.
4:15PM EST: Vanderbilt +22.5 (2 Units).
HC Clark Lea's in year number 4 at Vanderbilt and he's had the chance to build up the program his way. They totally flopped in 2023 after a decent 2022 campaign but 4 games into 2024 and they're competing. They're 3-1 ATS and 3-0 as underdogs. They nearly upset #9 Missouri last week getting 17.5 but lost by 3 in double overtime. They also beat Virginia Tech by a touchdown at Home getting 14 to start the season. They did lose at Georgia State 32-36 but made a nice comeback before allowing a last-minute TD drive. Georgia State's a solid football program and that was played in their house. Vandy is competing and playing inspired football. They're going to come out ready to play as they host the #1 team in the country. This is also let down spot for Alabama. They're coming off a massive win at Home over Georgia. May have a bit of a hangover coming into this game before they settle in. Either way this Alabama defense isn't exactly stellar, and the Commodores have proven they can score. Transfer QB Diego Pavia has led the way, throwing for 638 yards and running for 228 in 3 games against FBS opponents. He has the only Vanderbilt turnover this season the ability to protect the ball will go a long way in this one.
7:00PM EST: Boise State -27 (4 Units).
This Boise State football team is legit. Going into Oregon and losing on a last second 34-37 FG wasn't a fluke. They have a Heisman candidate and future NFL RB, and their defense has 20 sacks through 4 games with 4 coming @ Oregon and 8 vs Washington State last week. It's a big number to cover but we don't expect Boise State's scoring to slow down. They run the ball as well as anyone in the Country. They averaged 221 rushing YPG last year and are at 289 this year. Ashton Jeanty has a lot to do with that success, but they've averaged over 200 rushing YPG since Dirk Koetter took over this offense in 2022. He's been calling plays since 1985.
Utah State's defense has been terrible in 3 games against FBS opponents this year. Going back, they've allowed 45 @ Temple to an Owls team that has scored just 48 combined points in 4 other games. They allowed 38 points to Utah at Home in true Freshman Isaac Wilson's first career start. And lastly, they were blown out 48-0 @ USC. Utah State's letting up 5.7 YPC and 218.7 rushing yards per game. The Boise State ground game is set to have a field day. With how strong of a rushing program Boise is we trust their offense will continue to move the ball even if starters get pulled.
Boise State has one of the best home field advantages in College Football on the blue turf. Against FBS opponents their defense allowed 20.8 PPG at Home in 2022, 17 in 2023, and they showed out in their 1 game at Home this year against a good Washington State offense. They won that game 45-24 with 7 of WSU's 24 coming against backups with just 20 seconds remaining. Their defensive line has wreaked havoc against ever opponent and that includes a very good Oregon offensive line.
7:30PM: Arkansas +14 (2 Units).
Tennessee is a vastly different team when playing on the road. They tend to blow the doors off at Neyland Stadium but under Heupel they're 7-6 on the road after picking up a couple wins this year @ NC State and @ Oklahoma. They beat the Sooners 25-15 despite Oklahoma getting next to nothing from their offense. Arkansas's last two games have come on the road at Texas A&M and Auburn, and they moved the ball just fine. Their offense also combined for 1,762 yards in their first 3 non-conference games. The Vols have one of the better defenses, but it'll be a bit tougher for them on the road here. With Bobby Petrino, one of the most experienced play callers in College Football, and QB Taylen Green's legs, they should find ways to score. Just a few too many points to lay to a decent Arkansas team in their own house.
7:30PM: Washington -1.5 (4 Units).
Washington's coming off a very tough loss to Rutgers. It's a game they should have won and likely win 95 times out of 100. They put up 521 yards of offense to Rutgers 299. Some boneheaded penalties, missed FGs, and redzone misfires all led to an 18-21 defeat. It was eerily similar to their loss to Washington State. It was their first road game and that certainly played a part. The Huskies have had no issues moving the ball this season, ranking 17th in total yards per game against FBS opponents. Putting it in the endzone has been a bit of a struggle, but that's bound to give way as this Unit starts to gel. Offensive HC Jedd Fisch presided over the 7th most efficient redzone offense in College Football at Arizona last year. The Michigan defense isn't nearly as stout as last year’s group and just gave up 24 points to Minnesota at Home. This will be Michigan's first road game of the year so no Wolverine faithful behind them.
The Michigan offense has been pretty ugly. They're 101st averaging 310.2 yards per game and 129th (of 134) in passing yards per game. They switched to Alex Orji 2 games back and it's pretty much an option offense. He's only thrown for 121 yards in 2 games. Washington's run defense has very well in the early parts of the season. They bottled up a very good Rutgers rushing attack last week. They hit a couple long runs for 37 and 40 yards but didn't find much success otherwise. The Wolverines have been fortunate in their last couple games. Against Minnesota a takeaway at the15-yard line set up an easy Michigan TD but they also had a blocked punt for a TD in that game. Against USC they had a Pick 6. Their offense has scored 20 points in each of their last 2 games with Orji starting. Tough to see them having much success in their first road game with a whole new staff and QB against a Washington defense that's played extremely well under Steve Belichick.