Gridiron Player Club NCAAF 1-5 Units (10/4/24)

NCAAF

2 Picks.

9:00PM EST: UNLV First Half -3 (3 Units).

The story out of UNLV is the QB who left because of an NIL dispute. There was no written agreement to pay him 100K but that's what he felt he was owed. Without it he opted to redshirt and hit the portal. That was just under 3 weeks ago. They've played 1 game since against a solid Fresno State team and blew the doors off 59-14. They might even be better off with QB Hajj-Malik Williams as he's the better athlete. This is simply a well-coached football team that brought back more than half of last year's starters. They went 9-5 in HC Barry Odums first year at UNLV. He has prior head coaching experience, going 25-25 from 2016-2019 with Missouri. UNLV ranked 13th averaging 33.7 PPG against FBS opponents last year and they're at 36.3 so far this year. 2 of their 3 FBS games this year came on the road at Houston and at Kansas. Those are long road trips for UNLV and while the Houston offense is terrible, their defense has played quite well.

Syracuse has yet to play a game away from Home and their first one comes over 2,400 miles away. It'll be their first time playing in the Pacific Time Zone since 2011. Kyle McCord and the Cuse offense was all the rave through the first 2 weeks of College Football, but they were brought back to reality in their 24-26 upset loss to Stanford. McCord threw for 339 yards, but a pair of interceptions proved costly. Their defense has been average. Allowing 26 and 28 points to Stanford and Georgia Tech but also 22 to Ohio. They've let up nearly 400 yards per game in those 3 contests. They've had the luxury of playing at Home and with some excitement around the program it's a good home field advantage. They were the 70th ranked scoring defense last year but allowed just 20.4 PPG at Home compared to 32.6 on the road. They hired a defensive HC but it's year number one and you've got to have the horses. Don't see them stopping this Rebels offense in their own house today.

Really like the Rebels to get off to a fast start here. Likely takes some time for Syracuse to settle in. UNLV is ranked for the first time in program history and will have some 25K fans in attendance and their attendance numbers continue to climb under Odoms ascension. They'll likely break their attendance record that they set in Week 1 hosting such a historically great program like Syracuse. Be it Jet Lag, the abnormally late 9pm local start time, or the Crowd Noise in their first road game with a brand-new coaching staff and QB, we see a sluggish start for the Orange and the most value on the first half.

9:00PM EST: Oregon -23.5 (3 Units).

Oregon got off to a bit of a slow start this year and it's not shocking considering they lost their starting QB and half of their defense. The offense is just fine with transfer QB Dillon Gabriel, scoring 120 total points in their last 3 games. They're loaded at the skill position and brought back 3 of 5 starters from one of the best Offensive Lines in Football last year. Their defense held UCLA to 13 points in their most recent game and Oregon State to 14 the game prior to that. Both games were played on the road. Their last home game came on September 7th against a good Boise State team, winning 37-34.

Dan Lanning's no stranger to retooling a defense, during his time as the Georgia DC he had to replace starters year in and year out. His 2021 Bulldogs defense is considered to be one of the best of all time and they went into the year "rebuilding". Since Lanning took over Oregon's recruiting classes, they've ranked 13th, 9th, and 3rd. Their Portal classes ranked 23rd, 9th, and 2nd going into this year. This team does not lack talent, and we believe their last couple beat downs are more a sign of things to come.

Oregon averaged a tick over 44 points per game at Home last year and allowed under 14. The only offenses that really found success against the Ducks last year were led by Michael Penix and Cam Ward. Likely the best College QBs of the last 2 seasons. Even USC and #1 Overall pick Caleb Williams struggled in Eugene. Michigan State is averaging 17.3 PPG this season and just lost 7-38 at Home against Ohio State. Their starting QB has completed 76 of 135 pass attempts (56.3%) for 1,058 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions this year. Excluding Ohio State they've played Boston College, Prairie View A&M, Maryland, and FAU. Not exactly the toughest schedule. They’ve traveled across the Country for this one and Oregon has one of the best home field advantages with a fanbase that hasn't seen a game in a Month. It's a very tough spot.