NCAAF
3 Picks.
12PM EST: Washington ML +185 (3 Units).
Washington's had its fair share of struggles this year but they're an incredibly talented 4-3 football team. They've lost a couple games they really should have won, and that isn't surprising considering they replaced their entire coaching staff and 3/4 of its starting roster. The talents there and they have a quality coach to correct things. They're coming off a Bye which gives them a chance to self-correct a bit. It has really been the little things as they're 17th in total yards per game and 6th in yards allowed when facing FBS opponents. Their defense unraveled in the 2nd half against a good Iowa rushing attack in their most recent game but that was the only game they've allowed more than 24 points.
Indiana's off to this incredible 7-0 start with a first-year head coach. It's just not that easy to show up and win games week in and week out at the highest level. They've been hit with adversity for the first time this season, losing starting QB Kurtis Rourke to injury. He completed 74.6% of his passes for 1,941 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions through 7.5 games. Tayven Jackson steps in and while he's a more capable runner he's a much less accurate QB. Washington's dealt with dual threat in John Mateer and gave him a hard time. DC Steve Belichick likes to dial up pressure and run man coverage. Timely accurate throws are important against that style of defense and Jackson's struggled there. That'll also allow Washington to throw more numbers at the run game without Rourke dicing them up throwing.
There's also the question of how Indiana responds when a team comes out and punches them in the mouth. Indiana hasn't trailed a single second so far this season. They're a well-coached football team but they really haven't played anyone either. They beat up on Nebraska last week, but the Cornhuskers won 5 games last season and have yet to beat a quality team this year. Other than that they've played Maryland and Northwestern, neither of which are very good. This team hasn't needed to come back or put together some game winning drive all season. With a backup QB out there a sense of panic could settle in easy with these College Kids.
12:00PM EST: Ole Miss -19 (4 Units).
Oklahoma's going back to QB Jackson Arnold for this game but that won't fix the problem. Their offensive line would have been bad in the Big 12 and now they're playing in the SEC. Against FBS opponents OU's averaging just 3.1 YPC (120th) and are T-129th in Sacks allowed per game. Ole Miss has one of the better defenses in the Country and specifically defensive line. They rank 1st allowing just 2.1 YPC and are T-8th in Sacks Per Game. The last time Arnold started was at Home against a similarly stout Tennessee front and he looked like a Deer in headlights. He turned the ball over 3 times in the 1st half before getting benched for Hawkins. The Sooners have only played 1 road game this year and Hawkins made that start which means this is Arnold's first career road start. Hard to see this Oklahoma offense having success against the 4th ranked scoring defense.
Offensively Ole Miss scored on everyone except for Kentucky, when they simply laid an egg. As stout as Oklahoma's defense has been it's unraveling with the offensive struggles. They gave up 35 to South Carolina last week and 34 to Texas the week before that. They were also at Home for both of those. In their lone road game, they gave up 21 to Auburn. That's a season high for Auburn in their 5 Games against Power-5 opponents. Ole Miss is also coming off a bye week which gives Lane Kiffin a little more time to break down this defense.
7:30PM EST: Texas A&M -1 (3 Units).
Battle for the Number 1 spot in the SEC at Kyle Field tonight so you can expect a packed house and an incredibly hostile environment. LSU's coming off a nice road win @ Arkansas but 3 costly turnovers allowed that game to get away from the Razorbacks. The week prior LSU won a thriller at Home in Overtime against Ole Miss. That's the only truly stout defense that they've played, and QB Garrett Nussmeier struggled, completing just 43.1% of his passes. A&M ranks 10th in opponent completion % and are 35th in Sack %. LSU's 40% rush rate ranks 126th and A&M's 19th in rushing yards allowed per game and limiting teams to 3.6 YPC. LSU will be attacking the Teeth of this A&M defense, and it will be tough to communicate and set up protection at the LOS.
On the other side the A&M offense scored 31 @ Mississippi State last week and 41 on a very good Missouri defense at Home the week before that. They're hitting their stride and while this LSU defense is improved from years past, they aren't some elite group. They played USC on a neutral site and gave up 27. They went into SC and gave up 33. Ole Miss scored 26 on them 2 weeks back. Holding Arkansas to 10 last week was the only good showing by their defense against a decent opponent.
Doesn't hurt that LSU head coach Brian Kelly has a history of losing big games and that dates back to his Notre Dame days. In each of his 3 seasons at LSU they've lost in the big marquee matchups. A&M's also won each of its last 3 Home games against LSU.
