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Gridiron Players Club

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Gridiron Player Club CFB 1-5 Units (9/7/24)


NFL


5 Picks.


12:00PM EST: Texas/Michigan Under 41.5 (3 Units).


Texas returns its core with QB Quinn Ewers and their offensive line from last season but lost nearly every key skill position player from 2023. They lost their lead RB and all 5 of their leading wide receivers to the NFL draft. The one returner was backup RB CJ Baxter but he's out with an injury. Those losses weren't felt in a blowout win at Home against a much inferior opponent like Colorado State but it's going to come into play in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have arguably the best CB and Defensive Line in College Football. The talent that returns from their championship team is along the front 4 and it's a front 4 that carried them to a National Championship. With the Michigan faithful behind them it's going to be tough sledding for Texas's offense.


On the other side the Wolverines have just 1 starter returning on Offense. They're a Pro-Style offense that didn't light up the scoreboard as it is but 8 of their 11 starters were just drafted. Texas had one of the best defenses in the Country last year and despite losing their two stalwart defensive tackles, they're poised to be even stronger this year. They return 2/3 of their defensive production overall. With the Michigan offense in a complete rebuild, it's hard to see them having too much success in this game. They'll pound the rock all game like they usually do to help milk this clock as well.


12:00PM EST: Oklahoma State -9.5 (4 Units).


The Cowboys had a decent challenge in Week 1 against repeat FCS champs South Dakota State. They grabbed a double-digit lead and coasted the rest of the way. Arkansas went out and scored 70 points on Arkansas Pine-bluff as 50-point favorites. The Razorbacks rank 109th out of 134 FBS programs in returning production compared to Oklahoma State's 4th. Arkansas returns 9 starters to Oklahoma State's 20. We're bullish on last year's Big-12 runner ups because of it.


Arkansas won 4 games last year and only 1 of those came against a Power-5 opponent. Dual Threat QB KJ Jefferson is the only reason they competed at all. He started for 3 years at ARK but transfer to UCF after being sacked 42 times last year. He’s replaced by Boise State QB Taylen Green. Green's also a capable runner but he completed just 57.1% of his passes last season with 11 passing touchdowns and 9 interceptions against much weaker competition. We do not buy this Arkansas offense one bit and with high expectations at Oklahoma State, that is going to be one hell of a hostile environment. With so many new players and pieces to put in, and a lack of overall talent, going to be tough for Arkansas’s offense in their first road game.


Offensively Oklahoma State has the best RB in the Country and a starting offensive line that consists of 5 6th year Seniors. Their QB's also on his 7th year of College Football with over 9K passing yards in his career. Arkansas was the 82nd ranked scoring defense against FBS opponents a season ago. They do enter their 2nd season under defensive coordinator Travis Williams and may improve some, but this won't be a top defensive unit, especially on the road.


3:30PM: Baylor/Utah Over 54.5 (3 Units).


Baylor had the 122nd ranked scoring defense and allowed the 3rd most points per game on the road last season. Odds are they're better this year with some experience as they return 7 starters on the defensive side of the ball. However, when you're that bad, that's not exactly a good thing. They finished the year allowing 59 and 42 points in their last 2 road games. Utah starting QB Cam Rising was able to knock some rust off last week, throwing for 5 touchdowns against Southern Utah. Utah won back-to-back Pac-12 champs with Rising at the Helm before a devastating knee injury cost him all of 2023. The Utes averaged 36.1 and 38.6 PPG in 2021 and 2022. Overall, they get 75% of their production back on the offensive side of the ball and 3 of their 5 starting offensive lineman. Utah OL Coach Jim Harding's one of the best in the Country and is going on year 11 with the program. Altogether the Utes have one of the most tenured coaching staffs.


The Utes defense has a history of being quite good, but they just lost a starting CB last week and that's one of their thinnest position groups. Baylor's offense will be much more dynamic after landing prized Transfer dual-threat QB Dequan Finn out of Toledo. He's an explosive player that welcomes some chaos into the game. Chunk broken plays but likely some costly turnovers as well. The one plus outside of Finn is the Baylor WR room and they should have some impact against a thinner Utes secondary. With Finn's playmaking ability we trust Baylor's offense to score enough to help drive this over the total.


3:30PM EST: Northern Illinois +28.5 (2 Units).


Prime let down spot for the fighting Irish following the big win over Texas A&M but it's also a look ahead spot. Northern Illinois returned 15 starters from one of the best MAC teams last year. They kicked off last season with an outright win over Boston College and battled Nebraska a few weeks later. Notre Dame is clearly more talented, but they have a lot of new pieces on this team, including a brand-new offensive line. They did find some success rushing on Texas A&M thanks in large part to dual threat QB Riley Leonard. Considering he missed half of last season with an injury, and they face an inferior opponent today, don't expect them to run Leonard too much. The weakness of the Northern Illinois defense was its rush defense last season. They were 6th in passing yards allowed among FBS programs last year. Northern Illinois also leans on its ground game, ranking 21st in rushing YPG last season and averaging just shy of 240 in their last 3. Each team running the football will help shorten this game up. Just too big a number here.


8:00PM EST: App St/Clemson Under 53.5 (2 Units).


Clemson's offensive struggles carried over from last year and into their meeting with Georgia. Arguably the best defense in the Country but the overall lack of speed for Clemson was apparent. It's the same thing that plagued them last year and why they were the 59th ranked scoring offense. While Appalachian State is a less talented team, they have 9 starters returning on the defensive side of the ball. We don't expect them to stop the Tigers, but they have enough experience to slow them down. Clemson has found themselves in close games against much less talented teams quite often the last few years.


As for the App State offense, they're going to struggle. They have 5 returning starters and this Clemson defense is the truth. They held Georgia down and in check for the majority of the game before the dam finally broke. Their offenses inability to stay on the field eventually caught up to them, especially week 1. Their defensive line is loaded and it's a massive edge they'll have on a completely revamped App State offensive line.

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