Gridiron Player Club CFB 1-5 Units (9/28/24)

CFB

6 Picks.

12PM EST: Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Over 57.5 (2 Units)

Oklahoma State has scored plenty despite getting very little from their ground game. Teams have loaded the box to force Oklahoma State to throw and they've been fine doing so outside of last week’s game against Utah. That's one of the best defenses in the country and a spot we picked them to struggle in. Kansas State could very well force Oklahoma State to throw but their pass defense isn't half as good as Utah's. Despite not being truly tested they're 91st in passing yards allowed per game. They were 60th in that same category last year. If they do opt to play coverage this is a great spot for the Oklahoma State ground game to click.

Star RB Ollie Gordon led the Country in rushing yards last year and did it behind the exact same offensive line and play caller. They did get out of the gates a little slow last year before turning it on in conference play. The Big 12 isn't known for their defense. We trust Oklahoma State's offense to score points one way or the other. They did score 39+ in their 3 games prior to being held to 19 by Utah. They rank 4th in plays per second and either move the ball quickly or put their already mediocre defense in tough spots.

Oklahoma State lost 22-19 at Home to Utah with a True Freshman QB who had just 53 career pass attempts going into the game. Utah ran for 259 yards despite that disadvantage. It's been a theme for Oklahoma State's defense, ranking 104th allowing 199 rushing yards per game. Kansas State's 16th in rushing yards per game (226) and attempt (5.8). Cowboys are letting up over 485 yards per game thus far and got killed by Arkansas QB Taylen Green's legs. KSU's Avery Johnson is one of the best running QBs in the country and a more then capable passer. Wildcats poised for a hell of a rebound after a tough performance at BYU last week.

12PM EST: Baylor -3 (2 Units)

By all accounts Baylor should be sitting at 3-1 with just the close loss to Utah on their schedule. They gave up a Hail Mary that forced OT and then fumbled on their way into the endzone in Overtime to blow it in Colorado last week. Each of their 2 losses have come on the road. Been a couple lean years for Baylor but HC Dave Aranda led Baylor to a Big 12 Championship and best record in school history back in 2021 and did so with defense. Their defense has played well for the majority of the year outside of that slip up against Colorado. They limited the Utah offense to just 292 yards and 17 points in Utah and let up 3 points in each of their Home games to Tarleton and Air Force.

BYU is sitting pretty at 4-0 and coming off a big 38-9 win over Kansas State but they had just 241 yards of offense in that game. They had a Fumble Return TD, a Punt Return TD, and 2 of their 3 TD drives started inside Kansas State's 30. They're 86th in yards per game and have played just 1 other Power 4 team this year. They were @ SMU and scored just 18 points. They want to run the football but aren't great at it, ranking 77th in YPC. Baylor's 36th in rushing yards allowed per carry. BYU's young QB hasn't been asked to do too much and we expect this BYU offense to struggle on the road. The Baylor offense has scored on everyone except for Utah and that was in Utah. BYU's defense is solid but they're on the road here and surrendered the 13th most PPG on the road last season.

3:30PM EST: UCF -14. (3 Units)

Colorado stole a win last week to improve to 3-1 but this isn't a good football team. Their Line play simply isn't good enough. They're 123rd averaging just 2.6 YPC and on the defensive side they're 69th allowing 4.2 YPC. You aren't competing on the road in conference with play like that in the trenches. UCF HC Guz Malzahn has this UCF offense humming, averaging 40 Points and 536 yards per game. They're averaging 6.1 YPC and ranked 3rd last year averaging 5.7. With UCF at Home and given two weeks to prepare for this game, the UCF offense is set to cruise once again. Defensively UCF isn't anything special, but the 1-dimensional Colorado offense doesn't work. They averaged a tick under 12 points per game on the road last year and the same issues plague them once again.

3:30PM EST: Oklahoma/Auburn Under 44.5 (2 Units)

Oklahoma lost to Tennessee 25-15 at Home last week but that was an extremely impressive outing from their defense. The OU offense was beyond terrible and consistently set the Sooners defense back, but those boys kept coming out to play inspired defense. They've allowed just 34 points in their other 3 games combined. Auburns played 2 legitimate football teams, Arkansas & CAL, and scored just 14 points in each game. This Oklahoma Defense is one of the best in the country.

The Oklahoma Offense is just flat out terrible. HC Brent Venables at least switched QBs in the midst of Jackson Arnold practically playing for Tennessee last week. His replacement Michael Hawkins came in and provided a little life and in doing so named starter for this game. Scoring a couple touchdowns against a lax Tennessee defensive at the end of the game just isn't that inspiring. Their offensive line can’t run block, and they don't hold up in pass pro. Now you're asking Michael Hawkins to fix all these underlying problems with great QB play going into Auburn in his first career start. Just unlikely.

7:30PM EST: Penn State -17. (3 Units)

Everyone's riding Illinois's coattails after going into Nebraska and pulling off the upset but they're in for a talent bump. Nebraska's going to have a fine season, but they aren't littered with the caliber of athletes Penn State has. Illinoi's struggling to run the ball and Penn State had the number 1 run defense in CFB last year. They picked up right where they left off, going into WVU and limiting them to 85 yards on 37 carries (2.3 YPC). That's a WVU team with good athlete at the QB position. Luke Altmyer doesn't pose that threat, and he won't be looking at soft zone coverages when he steps back to throw like he saw against Nebraska. Penn State has one of the best cover corners and secondaries in the Nation. This Penn State defense is going to suffocate the Illinois offense at Home. These two met last year with Penn State winning 30-13 in Illinois. Altmyer threw 4 interceptions.

The Nittany Lions offense has certainly improved since their last meeting and the growth of QB Drew Allar is a big reason why. He along with one of the best RB duos in the country return from last year’s team. They have a new OC in Andy Kotelnicki, coming over from Kansas. The Jayhawks and QB Jalon Daniels are certainly missing him early this season. The Illinois defense is in for a long day on the road here. They aren't terrible but they won't get much help from their offense and still surrendered 297 passing yards to Nebraska last week. They'll break down even if they show up early.

10PM EST: Boise State -6.5 (4 Units).

We like what Washington State has going with John Mateer at QB, but this is a tough matchup. Boise plays solid defense at Home, and they run all over everybody. They averaged 221 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents last year and went into Oregon and ran for over 220 a few weeks back. Oregon won 37-34 on a game winning field goal. Boise State's scored 56 points exactly in their 2 other games. Washington State's allowing 4.9 YPC this season and gave up 52 points to San Jose State at Home last week. Boise's offense is going to have success in this one.

Boise State's defense did a very good job containing Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel. He's not quite the athlete Mateer is but he finished the day with 11 carries for -15 yards. Sack yardage counts as rushing yards for QBs if you didn't know. They'll need that discipline against Mateer, who's rushed for 425 yards and 5 touchdowns at a 7.5 YPC clip. He’s an inefficient passer and will turn the ball over. In 3 Games against FBS opponents he's completed a hair over 50% of his passes and thrown 4 picks total with at least 1 in each game. This is also their first true road game. They played at a neutral site against Washington.